Nancy Pelosi said something that was really out of line the other day. She commented, and the press didn’t question her any further, that if the 2020 presidential election were close, Donald Trump would refuse to buy it, and wouldn’t leave the office. And then continued on that if that happened, Trump may remain in office for another two years of so while the court battles raged on.
Well, first of all, Nancy Pelosi isn’t playing with a full deck when it comes to off the cuff press conference remarks. Remember, earlier she said that William Barr had lied to Congress, without offering any proof what-so-ever of that. It’s become a pretty stable part of the Democrats’ playbook. Accuse someone of something, and by the time it turns out to be false, most of America will have forgotten about it and moved on to something else.
But what is very telling here is that Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are realizing that they have a battle on their hands, and it isn’t against Donald Trump. They are in a fight for those folks that will end up making the decision who gets elected president in 2020. Typically about 47% of the electorate are Democrat and another 47% or so of the electorate are Republican. Oh, those numbers may vary by a percent or two year by year, but they are pretty close to that. Which means that about 6-8% of the population actually decides the winners in presidential elections. And what is more telling than not isn’t the total number, but where those 6-8% live. If they happen to live in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the midwest, they are more likely to side with the Republican Trump over his Democrat rival. Most of the folks in those states are centrist at best, and may lean a little left in the case of Michigan or Wisconsin, but they sided with Trump in 2016.
So, as we start the fight toward 2020 Democrats have to ask themselves, are they going to select a candidate that has the “energy” of the party, which is situated basically on the left fringe of the party with people like Sanders, Warren, Harris, O’Rourke, and Booker? Or are they going to go with someone like a Joe Biden, who isn’t going to have the energy to pull his own party to the polls like the others mentioned above, but has a much greater chance of winning over the 6-8% of the people in the middle… the centrists or moderates.
That is the problem the Democrats face. If they select as their candidate someone who has the energy, like a Sanders, is he able to win over the moderates with a socialist agenda? Probably not. Meanwhile, you know what you’re getting with Donald Trump because he’ll be like that comfortable easy chair your spouse keeps telling you to throw out, but you resist because it’s too damn comfortable. There are plenty of people who love to hate Trump…but will they hate Trump if someone like a Bernie Sanders, or an Elizabeth Warren is the Democrats’ nominee? Will they choose the “lesser of two evils”, which is what pretty much happened in 2016, as people thought they’d take a chance on a neophyte politician like Trump, rather than give the nod to what they viewed as a politician with all sorts of baggage and possibly a criminal indictment hanging over her like Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump will consider it a victory to have an approval rating of 50% come election day. But as we’ve learned, it doesn’t matter what your approval rating is. Barack Obama won re-election with a terrible economy and zero growth in the GNP, because he was a better choice than Mitt Romney, who ran a terrible campaign. People decided though they didn’t like Obama necessarily, he was a better option than what was being offered on the other side. The same thing looks like it could hold true this time around.
Only time will tell…
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!