Tensions are running high between the United States and Iran after Iran says it shot down an American drone over it’s airspace. Iran has become increasingly belligerent ever since the US decided to pull out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, which did nothing but guarantee that the Iranians would eventually get the bomb. So, you can guess that the Iranians would be pissed, right? Pissed enough to go to war?
I really don’t think so…and here’s why.
First of all, Iran isn’t a powerhouse. Look, it took us less than 100 hours to defeat Iraq back in 1990 (during the first Gulf War), and we did it again in the Second Gulf War. Iraq at the time we first tangled with them had something like the fifth or sixth largest army in the world. They may have had the manpower, but they didn’t have the strength. We crushed them. And it was a scant 10 years earlier that they were involved in a huge war with Iran. I mean, that one went on forever, and it cost tons of lives on both sides.
The Iran/Iraq war cost hundreds of billions of dollars, killed over a million troops combined, and injured and maimed another 2 million troops. It went on for eight years and never really had a winner. Iran accepted a cease fire agreement eight years after the shooting started.
So, why do I think Iran would be stupid to enter a war with the US? Because even though they claim to be gearing up to get the bomb, it would decimate their country. Look what we did to Iraq…and Iraq went toe to toe with them at the height of Saddam Hussein’s power. Defeating Iraq was about as consequential to the US as swatting a fly. The same would happen to Iran.
Now, I also don’t think the US is interested in getting into a war with Iran. I really think Donald Trump has about had it with the Middle East and trying to solve their problems. He wants out of Afghanistan. He wants out of the Middle East, and he wants them to solve their own problems…or at the very least pay the US for stepping in (which isn’t likely). The Middle East has been fighting longer than most countries have been around. Their wars go back millenia, and they never seem to achieve lasting peace. So, yes… I could see Iran actually wanting to go to war… I can also see them losing in 100 hours, much like Iraq. This isn’t Afghanistan, which has a very weak centralized government, and tribal lords that rule vast swaths of the country. This is a country that basically has a modern form of government…albeit somewhat of a theocracy and a political government.
Trump doesn’t want to extend the US’ stay in the Middle East. But he’s not going to let a two-bit country like Iran push him around either. I really don’t see this becoming a war, and if I’m wrong and it does, it really doesn’t seem like it would last long. Trump just needs to concentrate on one thing…winning reelection in 2020!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!