You knew it wouldn’t be long before it started. With 27 Democrat candidates trying to unseat Donald Trump for the White House next year, it had to happen sooner rather than later…and by the time you read this, it may already have started. The Democrats’ field may have started to shrink.
California Congressman, Eric Swalwell will most likely be the first to drop out of the race.
The long-shot Dem who really hasn’t caught on with anybody currently has 0.0% in the polls, and is in danger of losing his slot on the debate stage to Montana Governor, Steve Bullock. Swalwell has a 4pm presser called for this afternoon. He also cancelled a trip over the 4th of July to New Hampshire. When asked about why the trip was cancelled, the staff just shrugged their shoulders and walked away.
While Swalwell’s departure won’t be a blow to the Democrats that are running, and will not be missed by anyone other than his immediate family, it does show that we can start to see this huge field start to whittle down quite a bit between now and probably a week or two after the July debates. If you don’t have a spot on the stage, you’re going to end up not being able to raise significant amounts of cash. Cash is the life-blood of these candidacies and without it, you just can’t build and an organization that can compete with the likes of a Biden, or Sanders, or Harris, or Warren. In fact, after the next debate or two, you can probably figure there will only be three, maybe four candidates that have a real shot at winning the nomination. And it will probably be one of the four I’ve named.
In the coming few weeks, certainly before Labor Day, you can see such notibles as Ryan, Hickenlooper, Moulton, Williamson, DeBlasio, Bullock, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Bennet, Yang, Klobuchar, and Inslee all drop out of sight. That cuts the field in half when you add Swalwell to the mix. And it eliminates everyone with 1.0% or less in the polls. Of course, in order to get on the stage for the debates, you’re going to have to average 2.0% in several polls, which at this point means that there won’t be that many people debating.
Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, O’Rourke, and Booker all are over 2.0% right now. That’s only seven of them. And they need to have something like 130,000 individual donors by the time the debate rolls around as well. That could very well knock out Booker and O’Rourke. Booker swears he’s in it for the long haul, but rumors continue to swirl that Beto’s campaign is on life support and isn’t doing well at all. That would leave five of the 27 still fighting it out if both O’Rourke and Booker drop.
The funny thing is that of those that would be left, all but Biden would be considered uber-leftist socialists. And if Biden takes a dive like he did in the first debate, he may nosedive in the polls as people start weighing whether or not he has the strength left to take on and defeat Donald Trump.
Many Democrat operatives in the party’s hierarchy have already started to question if there is anyone in the field who can defeat Trump. They are starting to wake up to the realization that Trump may be unbeatable in 2020. If the Dems’ feel that way this early in the process, they only have one option…try to hold the House and win the Senate, which is tough to do in a presidential election year when the President has coattails and can bring down-ticket races with him.
It’s beginning to feel more and more like 2012, and the roles reversed from Obama to Trump…only Trump’s economy is humming along and his approval rating is about 15% higher than Obama’s at this point.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!