It doesn’t look as if the Republicans in the United States Senate are, at least at this point in time, ready to go rogue on Donald Trump when it comes to impeachment. If you go back in time to the 1970’s when Richard Nixon faced impeachment (and resigned before he could get impeached), the GOP had turned tail and ran on him. Not to say it wasn’t warranted. In the 1990’s when Bill Clinton was impeached, Democrats stood behind him, with only five Representatives voting against him on Article I, and eight voting against him on Article II.
In the Senate, it looks like IF Trump is impeached this time around it’s going to be more like a Clinton impeachment than a Nixon. Back when Clinton was impeached, of the 55 Republicans in the Senate, 45 voted guilty on Article I (lying to the Grand Jury), and 50 voted guilty on Article II (obstruction of justice). No Democrats voted against him on either charge, so it fell far short of the 67 votes needed.
Today, it looks as if two Republicans in the Senate may be crossing over. Mitt Romney of Utah, never a Trump supporter, and Susan Collins of Maine, one of the most mamby-pamby Senators we’ve ever had in the upper chamber are said to be going to vote with the Democrats if indeed impeachment occurs. Or at least they are likely to.
The rest of the GOP, except for a few rogue members in the House, will be backing Donald Trump.
That means that basically speaking all this is, is an attempt to gin up the base ahead of the 2020 Presidential election. And it’s probably not going to work. As the trial moves on through the Senate, it’s going to become very clear that what Democrats think are “high crimes and misdemeanors” aren’t what the American people feel are impeachable offenses. And what the Democrats feel is going to gin up their base and get them to turn out for their candidate (currently looking like it’s going to be Elizabeth Warren, though that could change), I have a feeling that most Americans (Republicans and Independents) are going to be repulsed by impeachment. It could backfire in a big way. If the GOP has 51 Senators voting in favor or Trump (with Romney and Collins bucking the trend), and all of the Democrats (45) and the 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats voting against him, the vote comes out 49 in favor of impeachment, 51 against. That’s far short of the 67 needed.
And who gets the blame when it fails? Not Trump. Nancy Pelosi and the House Democrats. It actually could end up boosting Trump in the polls, and it would give a major boost to the GOP to regain control of the lower body. There is a 38 seat gap between the two with 1 Independent, and 2 vacant seats currently. It wouldn’t take a lot for the GOP to use impeachment to show the country the Dems’ aren’t doing the country’s business!
And then what happens?
The Democrats have basically shot their wad when it comes to impeachment. If Trump wins reelection, what are they going to do in the second term? You can’t keep yelling wolf when you drop the nuclear option and lose. Impeachment could be the key to Trump’s greatest victories! Imagine that!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!