No Fire…No Smoke

If you’ve been following the impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives at all, you probably fall into one of two categories. The first let’s call the “Trump category”. These are people that believe, like Donald Trump, that the Democrats don’t have a leg to stand on, that they are trying to overturn the will of the voters in the 2016 presidential election, and they’ve been out trying to impeach Trump since before he took office. Then, you’ve got the second group. These are the “Schiff category” folks. These folks think that Donald Trump apparently abused his power in his phone call to Ukrainian President, Zelenskiy, and then obstructed Congress on the details of that call. That, in the eyes of these folks is certainly an impeachable offense, and could ruin our democracy for generations if not punished.

Well, after weeks of closed-door hearings where only a few of the witnesses were invited back to testify on the open to the world hearings, and a couple of days of Jerry Nadler infested Judiciary Committee hearings, where we basically got schooled by uber-leftist law professors (and by Jonathon Turley who isn’t liberal) as to what impeachment means, we now know that Donald Trump will face two charges in his impeachment trial. The first is abuse of power for making a quid pro quo with Zelenskiy that neither side believes was actually a quid pro quo. The second is the fact Trump wouldn’t allow his folks from the White House to testify before Congress (President’s rarely do!) because he felt it was a sham from the start.

So, we will move forward with the floor vote on the House. This is going to be basically the third impeachment vote in our history. Richard Nixon resigned before getting impeached, but had he not resigned he most assuredly would have been for covering up the Watergate break-in. And that should prove to be interesting. Not because of the outcome, that’s a foregone conclusion, but because what every major player in this scenario has said in the past will fail to come to fruition. Nancy Pelosi and Jerry Nadler said that an impeachment should be overwhelming in evidence, and strongly bi-partisan in nature. This vote will be neither.

In fact, the only bi-partisanship I can see coming in it will be Democrats from Trump-won districts in 2016 that are scared they will lose their jobs if they vote with their party. I can see upwards of 10 of them switching over and voting with the Republicans, though if they do, you can bet there’ll be hell to pay come next election! Those folks are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t.

When this charade gets to the Senate, it will be a different matter. I’ve heard the Senate won’t try to dismiss charges (that could be viewed as partisan in it’s own right). Instead, they will go for a full trial. And in the Senate, there will be three or four Democrat Senators that could end up switching sides and voting with the majority. And you may see a couple of GOP Senators, like Susan Collins from Maine, Lisa Murkowski from Alaska, and even Mitt Romney from Utah, switching sides. Alas, it won’t be enough.

The Democrats will need 20 Republicans to flip. That’s a nearly impossible figure, especially considering the Dems’ only could come up with two articles of impeachment, and neither one was proven to the entire country. After all of the investigations and inquiries, 45% of Americans feel Trump should be removed from office, and 48% say he shouldn’t. That’s certainly not overwhelming bi-partisanship. The Republicans are going to make the Democrats look like fools as they try to call Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, and Nancy Pelosi to testify as witnesses in the Senate trial. And, in the end, the whole thing will be swept under the rug and Trump stays in office.

Long term, I think the Democrats end up losing the presidential race by a wider margin than they did in 2016; they end up losing two, maybe three seats in the Senate, giving the Republicans 55 or 56 seats, and they very well could lose the House as well because that is where this whole menagerie started. They only need to lose 20 of the 31 seats on the bubble in order to lose the House altogether.

It took the Republicans several years to bounce back from the Clinton impeachment, and that had guilt written all over it (Clinton had admitted that he lied to the Grand Jury). He never lost his job as president, but he was disbarred for life. This time around, I think the Democrats may have lost big time, not just in 2020, but in 2022, and possibly in 2024 as well.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

One thought on “No Fire…No Smoke

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