The latest Quinnipiac poll was released the other day and it shows that the impeachment inquiry is having a dire effect on the presidential candidates…well, all but Donald Trump. The poll shows that 51% said Donald Trump shouldn’t be impeached, while 45% say he should. This is up from 48% saying don’t impeach and 45% say impeached just a week ago.
As far as the elections are concerned, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have moved up in the polls, while Pete Buttigieg has slumped. Overall, Biden has 29% of the Democrat voters. Sanders is in second with 17%, Elizabeth Warren with 15% and Pete Buttigieg with 9%. Since the last poll on 11/24, Biden rose 5%, while Buttigieg slipped 7%. Warren and Sanders remained in the polls margin of error.
What’s interesting is that Donald Trump gets beat in head-to-head match ups with all Democrats, even Amy Klobuchar. And that is exactly what happened four years ago at this point. Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 47% to 41%. But in all of the head-to-head match ups, Trump has picked up about 2 points in the last two weeks.
It’s interesting to note that almost every single Democrat candidate is upside down when it comes to likeability. Biden has 44% likeability, 47% unlikeability; Sanders’ is 44-48; Warren’s is 38-45; Michael Bloomberg is upside down 21-40. Only Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are right side up with Buttigieg getting a 31-29 rating, and Klobuchar’s is 24-23. Both are well within the margin of error. For comparison, Trump’s likeability/unlikeability is 40-57. This compares to a 35-57 when he ran for president some four years ago at this point.
So, what this poll tells us is pretty much what I’ve been saying all along. Donald Trump was down big time to Hillary Clinton at this point in 2015. In fact, most eventually winners were down at this point in their campaign. The thing Trump has going for him is that the Democrats are handing him a campaign issue with impeachment, and most Americans agree that he’s been screwed over by House Democrats. The mere fact that since the impeachment inquiry started a few weeks ago, he’s picked up two points across the board, all of it coming from independent voters, shows that he’s ripe to use that as a campaign issue, and it will translate into votes.
In fact, Republicans and independent voters seem more likely to vote this time around than they did in 2016. That doesn’t bode well for Democrats looking to win the White House, take some seats back in the Senate where Republicans are defending the majority of seats this cycle, and looking to maintain their hold in the House. It could be a clean sweep for the Republicans if this keeps up for another 11 months!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!