The Death Of The “Sure Thing”

New Hampshire wasn’t supposed to be where Joe Biden died. He wasn’t supposed to die at all. Remember, he said he wouldn’t do well in Iowa…he never has…and he didn’t this year either. But he was hoping for maybe a strong second or even a third place finish in New Hampshire. He didn’t even wait until the polls had closed before he skated to South Carolina.

Joe Biden is “Dead Man Walking”.

And he’s not alone. Elizabeth Warren’s speech after the polls closed congratulated Amy Klobuchar on a great run. It sounded every bit like a concession speech. Only she didn’t concede yet. In fact, as far as I can tell, there were only two concessions last night. Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet officially dropped out of the race. Deval Patrick will be throwing in the towel today.

But Warren and Biden aren’t far behind.

Oh, they both may make it to the Nevada Caucus a week from Saturday. Biden might even make it to South Carolina’s Primary the following Saturday, but they are both dead.

Just to recap last night, Sanders edged Buttigieg in New Hampshire, with Amy Klobuchar finishing a surprising third. Warren was a distant fourth, and Biden slumped to fifth, which was amazing considering he was in second just a week ago!

But when you call someone a “lyin’ dogface pony soldier”, as Biden did during a town hall meeting in New Hampshire, even thinking you’re quoting John Wayne, you’re not going to do well. His exact quote was, “Iowa’s a Democratic caucus,” the former vice president responded. “You ever been to a caucus?” When Moore said she had, he responded, “No you haven’t. You’re a lying dog-faced pony soldier.” The woman asked what I thought was actually a pretty good question. It was basically, that if you can’t win Iowa, how can you win a national election?

The funny thing is, Biden has used this quote before, in North Dakota during a town hall meeting in 2018. And again, he attributed it to John Wayne when asked about it later. Quite possibly, the fact he told a guy in Iowa that he was a liar, and “you need to take an IQ test”, just a week before shaded what he thought was a funny quip. It turned out to be a Howard Dean yell.

Elizabeth Warren has been on the ropes for a month. In fact, I predicted four weeks or so ago that she would be the first major candidate to withdraw from the race. I still hold true with that prediction. Because I think that Biden could do better in Nevada, certainly better in South Carolina unless he shoots himself in the foot again.

But the overall takeaway from last night was, either Biden or Warren could drop out at any moment, leaving Sanders, Buttigieg and surprisingly, Amy Klobuchar to battle it out the rest of the way. And in the end, I don’t see Sanders getting the nod…at least not at this point. Buttigieg would prove to be a much tougher battle for Donald Trump. He’s a lot more moderate, and wouldn’t upset the traditional wing of the party. Sanders on the other hand is viewed by the traditional Democrats as toxic, and not a real Democrat. Of course, Bernie’ minions will all stay seated on the sidelines if he doesn’t win the nod!

Either way, it could be, as some of the pundits are saying, a brokered convention this summer. That’d be a blast to watch!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

9 thoughts on “The Death Of The “Sure Thing”

    1. Thanks, Cactus, for this overview. However, regarding “moderate” on the Democrat side — I am not sure it exists. For example, look to Buttigieg’s refusal to recognize the right of Democrats to be pro-life. Likewise, Bernie went hard-line on his view that Democrats must be pro-choice. All of the attendees to the first debate agreed that Americans need to pay for illegal aliens’ health care. Nobody on the Democrat side mentions anything about health care without going to “universal Medicare.” (Since I saw what medicare was for my parents, I don’t want that.)

      Liked by 2 people

      1. I haven’t heard one of them approach that subject. In fact, it’s interesting…the women’s libbers that were all fighting for Title IX back in the day, are also the ones that say we should be able to do whatever we want with our bodies…and I’m assuming that means be transgender, or get sex change operations, or any of that stuff….and of course, that would be discriminatory if you didn’t let them play in a sport as “they felt” rather than their birth gender.

        Liked by 1 person

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