As we start to emerge from the Coronavirus escapade that has taken all the air out of the country for the last two months, we start to think about returning to normal. And for those politico’s out there, the thoughts start to return to politics. Of course, those of us with brains never let it wander very far from our thinking in the first place.
And the question becomes, does Joe Biden really have a chance to win the presidency? Now, I answered this question a while back, and my answer was “yes”. He certainly does. But I’m starting to rethink that one a little bit. Yes, there are some avenues for Biden to beat Trump in the fall, but they are getting smaller and smaller.
The first thing that strikes me is that Joe Biden is not a well man. I’m not talking physically, I’m referring to his mental capacity. He has consistently been screwing up his basement interviews with friendly media to the point they are starting to call him on it, as George Stephanopoulos did on Good Morning America last week. The gaffes have always been there with Biden, but more and more people, especially on the Democrats’ side, have started asking whether he was all right.
The second thing that hits me is, he, like his compadre back in 2016, has a lot of baggage to answer for, and saying, “If you believe Tara Reade, you probably shouldn’t vote for me”, isn’t going to cut it. Biden has got other shady dealings that he hasn’t talked about, but needs to prior to election day. What about his dealings with Ukraine and Burisma? How did his son get that cushy position on their Board of Directors? And let’s learn more about his dealings with the Chinese. He backs them and says that Trump is all wet for saying China is behind COVID-19. Well, if that’s the case, tell us what you and China struck a deal on that allowed Hunter to get over $1 Billion on!
The third thing, and probably one of the most important things is, that Bernie Sanders was told just late this past week, that the majority of his supporters are not going to be supporting Biden this year, regardless what Bernie says, and that if he pushes the issue, he will lose credibility. That has got to worry Biden especially, because, without Bernie’s Bro’s, he is a sitting duck. If those folks stay home, as they did in 2016 with Hillary, there aren’t enough voting Democrats out there to carry Biden to an electoral college victory.
And finally, it’s interesting that with just over five months to go, Biden is only leading Trump by single digits, and that’s after all of Trump’s Coronavirus snafus and his daily briefings that were anything but productive. His approval numbers fell five points during that time, and he’s only now starting to recover. What’s interesting is the fact that Trump is actually leading Biden in a lot of the battleground states. So much so, that the Biden camp has said they want to “extend the map”, and try and get more states in play this cycle. They are going to try and get Arizona, Missouri, and a few of the closer states going for Biden, as opposed to trying to win back Michigan, or Wisconsin, or maybe even Biden’s birth state of Pennsylvania (where he’s still leading…but not by much!).
Now, don’t think Trump has it wrapped up. If a couple of Supreme Court cases go against him with making his taxes public, it could change the environment some. And don’t think that he’s a lock to win the popular vote. That probably won’t happen. But there are enough states that will go for Trump over Biden that it looks like he should be reelected, especially if Biden stays cloistered in his house!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!