Joe Biden has a major problem. When he stays in his basement and doesn’t say anything, he lets Donald Trump say the stupid comments (which he does from time to time), and Biden is the beneficiary of them. But then, as the election gets closer, Biden has to crawl above ground and hit the campaign trail. That opens up a world of gaffes and miscues. When that happens, his poll numbers drop.
The latest gaffe occurred in Michigan this past week when Biden was meeting with union members, and one lady approached the microphone and said, “They told us to stick to the questions on this here paper, but I’m not going to do that”. She then asked Biden a question off the paper she was handed. Biden looked to his handlers and said, “Where is the prompter at?” as if to say he didn’t know where the answer was to her question. And it was all caught on camera.
Here’s what’s happening. Biden has basically lost Florida and North Carolina already. In the other battleground states, he’s leading, but not by much. Most of the polls are within the margin of error. In fact, Pennsylvania is tipping toward Trump, as is Michigan (though Biden is still up by 2 points there), and Wisconsin is 5 points in Biden’s favor, but it was 9 points just a week ago. Add to that Arizona, which Biden has led consistently throughout the cycle, is now showing Trump by 2. And these are the public polls. My sources in the Trump campaign say that Trump is actually leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and believe it or not, Minnesota in the internal polls. If that’s true, Trump could lose Wisconsin and it won’t matter.
What else is interesting is that Trump was in Nevada on Saturday, and polls there are tightening. What was a 2.5% Hillary victory in 2016 is basically a dead heat, and pollsters around the country have flipped the state from “leaning Democrat” to “toss-up”.
This isn’t good news for Biden. Unlike what happened four years ago, Biden isn’t doing as well as Hillary did in any of the states, other than Delaware, and New York. Trump is even doing better in California. That’s also not taking into account the “silent Trump voter” factor that basically gave Trump the election four years ago. While all of the polls showed Hillary winning, what she and her campaign staff failed to realize was that Trump supporters were lying to the pollsters about who they were backing. And the same thing is supposedly happening this time around (I mean, why change what ain’t broke?).
And all of this is happening without the aid of a Durham Report that sounds like it actually may be coming out prior to the election; three presidential debates in which Trump has promised to rip Biden on basically everything he’s been saying for months; and the fact that Biden has a problem with gaffes and telling the truth. Now you can add the fact that Hunter Biden is back in the news as having sold a car parts manufacturer to a Chinese concern for a hefty fee, feeding into Trump’s claim that if Biden were elected, China would own America.
I know it’s a little early to be confident, and I’m not quite there yet. My guy usually isn’t wrong when it comes to presidential elections…it was in 2012, but that’s been it going back to the 1980 election when I thought Reagan was going to get beat. This time, my Maalox consumption is way down. I wonder why?
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!