I’ve made it clear on these blogs that I’m fully prepared for a Joe Biden win over Donald Trump in a couple of weeks. I’ve based this on some reasoning that may not be all that valid. I recently saw a very interesting video on YouTube that kind of shot holes in my thinking, in which I got down on my knees and thanked God Almighty for!
The video said Donald Trump was primed to win this election in a huge landslide.
Stay with me here. It’s an interesting scenario. First of all, look at the size of events that take place for the candidates. Trump was in Johnstown, Pennsylvania the other day. Johnstown only has 19,600 people, and it’s rather small. In fact, it was so small that Trump couldn’t land the 747 Air Force One at their airport. He had to take a much smaller version. They had thousands of people turn out. Contrast that with Joe Biden. Biden spoke in Toledo, Ohio the other day. That was the site of his gaffe that he was a “proud Democrat running for the Senate”. And he told people to go to a website that doesn’t even exist. As far as the crowd was concerned? Well, MSM won’t show you his crowds, but there were about 15 people at his event in Toledo, including about 6 staffers. A rally that Elizabeth Warren attended was held in someone’s back yard. They had about 10 people there.
So Trump’s supporters are coming out in droves, and Biden’s seem not to be. Here in the desert, Joe Biden held a rally the other day. A news reporter for one of the local TV stations said she was “stunned” because a total of 10 people showed up for it, and again, 8 of them were Biden staffers who stood and applauded him. Her comment was that people driving by on the street next to the event wouldn’t even know there was event taking place.
Next up this guy brought up a very interesting statistic…and I love statistics. Did you know only one time in the history of our country has a sitting president received more than 75% of the total primary votes and lost the presidency? That was George Herbert Walker Bush in 1992 after the “Read my lips, no new taxes” fiasco. Donald Trump received over 90%. That by the way topped the previous record held by Ronald Reagan in 1984 (which Reagan won in a landslide).
When you look at party registrations, something else you won’t hear about in the media, Republicans are registering about four times more voters this cycle than Democrats. And statistics show that first time voters are 50% more likely to vote than the average voter who’s done it over and over again.
Finally, he got to the polls. You know, the ones that show Biden leading by 12 points, or 14 points? If you get into the weeds with these polls and look at the internals, how the polls were constructed and taken, normally you would want to base it on 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, 30% Independent/Other. Even in years when you know there are more Democrats than Republicans, the fair polls only usually tick up by a few points. The polls you’re seeing today show about 45-47% Democrat, 25-29% Republican, and 24-30% Independent/Other. So, all of the polls we are seeing are skewed to Biden, as they were with Clinton.
After watching that video, I’m starting to sway back that this could not only be a dog fight, but something very enjoyable to watch in 2020. We may not have to wait weeks for the mail-in ballots to be counted based on what this guy says. And that would cap off an incredibly weird year, and quite possibly put most of these so-called polling companies out of business, at least in terms of presidential races (like Gallup) forever!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!