Ever since the Republicans had a great showing in November despite Donald Trump losing out to Joe Biden, and the Democrats were still unable to fully control the Senate, except with a K-baby Harris tie-breaker, the pundits all over have said that Republicans will most likely take over the House in 2022, and could do a decent job with the Senate, re-taking that if they played their cards right.
Well, is there a red wave coming next year?
I would say all signs point to yes. Here’s why.
When you look at re-districting because of the 2020 Census, it’s going to show that a lot of the rust belt states, New York, and California are going to lose a seat. Those seats are most likely going to be Democrat seats, except in Cali and New York. But Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania are all going to lose a Democrat seat because the Republicans control their state houses. And who is going to pick up seats? Colorado will get an extra one, and that will be competitive between Democrats and Republicans. Oregon will get one, and that’s not going to be in Portland, so it has a chance of being a Republican seat. Montana is going to pick up a seat, and while competitive, it will most likely go to Republicans. Florida is going to get one, and that will most likely go red. And Texas will be getting two seats. You can pretty well bet that will be leaning to the red side of things as well.
So, just with the re-districting, before anything else is done, Democrats are going to lose say, five seats and the GOP will pick up maybe four of those seats. Currently Democrats have a total of a six seat lead. There are five vacancies that need to be filled, and as I write this, the GOP stands to pick up at least three of those. That would give the Democrats a five seat lead if no one else retires, quits, or dies. So, without any “red wave”, just taking into account re-districting, the Republicans cut the Dems’ lead down to one seat. And traditionally, the party that doesn’t hold the White House loses seats in midterm elections. The GOP could actually have a huge 20 seat majority come January, 2023.
Over in the Senate, I’ve seen predictions that Republicans could actually pick up 10 seats in the Senate. Now, that’s quite a swing in an off year. But let’s look at it. Democrats may only flip one seat and that may be Pennsylvania with Pat Toomey retiring.
The GOP could flip the state of New Hampshire with Chris Sununu running. He was a popular Governor there, and would probably win. In Nevada, the DSA took control of the state’s Democrat party, shoving the Harry Reid folks aside for the first time in some 50 years. That state’s Democrat party is a mess right now. It would be relatively easy for a Republican that had some name recognition to take that. In Arizona, Mark Kelly was so well funded in his defeat of a terrible candidate in Martha McSally back in November, that if someone with an ounce of political savvy ran, he may be defeated. That person I think may be current Representative, and former president of the Arizona State Senate, Andy Biggs. Biggs is very well liked here in the desert. That’s two more flips for the GOP.
In Georgia, Raphael Warnock is going to probably be facing former NFL star Herschel Walker. If he is, it’s going to be hard for Warnock to defend his scandals. And Kelly Loeffler ran a terrible campaign last fall. If Walker runs, he will most likely win, and Georgia has a seat flipped! In Montana, John Tester isn’t going to be able to hold on to his seat. He’s had a chance, and hasn’t been very well liked in Montana. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown has been in office a VERY long time. If the GOP decides to run a decent candidate, they have a very good chance of taking him down. Remember, Ohio went for Trump in 2020. They are a swing state, but they have been leaning to the right for a while now. Only Toledo, Cleveland, and sometimes Cincinnati go the other way.
In West Virginia, Joe Manchin is up for reelection. My hunch is he’s going to retire. If he doesn’t, and the GOP decides to run anyone still breathing, even though Manchin has been the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, he’s still a Democrat, and it’s tough for West Virginians to want to go blue when that party wants to destroy the coal industry.
That gives the GOP 57 seats, and the Dems’ 43. Do you realize with three upsets going forward maybe in 2024 if the GOP wins back the White House, they will undoubtedly do well down-ballot and pick up a few more seats, taking them upwards to 60. Why is that important? Because 60 seats is filibuster proof.
And if I were in the GOP and wanted to do something to insure power moving forward if that happened, I’d expand the Supreme Court to 13 people, and have a Republican nominate another four people to the high court, solidifying a conservative court well into the future! Just kidding. I’d keep it at 9.
There you go! A little early for predictions, granted, but those are the predictions this far out. Now, if only I could find my magic wand…
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!