But Can He Win?

There has been a lot of speculation on whether Donald Trump will actually try for the White House again in 2024. He says he knows the answer, but isn’t ready to divulge it to people outside his most inner circle just yet. Fair enough. But there should be a bigger question looming out there.

Can he actually win the White House again?

Quinnipiac, admittedly a very liberal polling outfit asked the question most recently in October. It had been about five months since they had polled that particular question. In May, some 65% of Republicans wanted Trump to run. In October, that number had ballooned to 78%. 94% of Democrats and a whopping 58% of independents want Trump to keep playing golf in Florida.

Now, the question still remains. If Trump were to actually run in 2024, and he’s got basically six to nine months to publicly announce, can he actually win.

Based on the numbers I just shared with you, the answer is no.

If you were to add together all of the numbers from 78% of Republicans wanting him, some 6% of Democrats going along for the ride, and 42% of independents on his side, he is going to lose. Earlier last year, there was a poll that pitted Biden against Trump. I was surprised when I saw Biden actually up 46 to 45% in that poll, well within the margin of error. It was closer than the 2020 election, and it should be based on the abysmal job Biden has done in year one of his presidency, but showing Biden actually winning? That poll came from the Wall Street Journal. But a quick check of all of the polls done in December showed that Trump would indeed win, though the margin is incredibly small against Biden. Trump has no problem against Harris.

Harvard-Harris has Trump beating Biden by 3 points, and Harris by 9. Insider Advantage did a poll just before Christmas that had Trump up 49-41% over Biden (Harris wasn’t included). That could have had something to do with miserable supply chain situations just before Christmas! Either way, it’s probably a LOT closer than most Republicans would have liked.

The thing you have to actually gauge here that the polls don’t tell you on the face is, how excited is each side to go out and vote for either Biden or Trump. My hunch is the Republicans would be a LOT more excited to vote for Trump, even if they aren’t the biggest supporter of him. And I can’t believe that with upper echelons of the Democrat party searching to see if there is someone better than Biden to run in 2024, that the base is all that excited about Sleepy Joe. When you’re consistently getting approval numbers in the mid 30’s, it’s not good news.

I think it becomes a “lesser of two evils” situation once again. Back in 2020, America knew what they were getting with Trump, and had pretty much forgotten what they could have with Biden, even though the clues were very evident. They went with the devil they didn’t know, and we’re all paying for it now. In 2024, is America ready to change back and reelect Trump, and for only the second time in history, make him a non-consecutive two term president (Grover Cleveland being the other one with Benjamin Harris sandwiched in there). The odds are probably pretty good at that. Either way, it is going to be a horse race, and I think a lot of it comes down to whether Biden is able to actually look and act presidential and stop wondering where he is all of the time. No one wants a president that needs to be reminded what day it is!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!


11 thoughts on “But Can He Win?

  1. Sensible foreign policy meeting challenges with strength, dynamic domestic policy but he’s just too toxic. If he was reelected, all the Trump haters would once again focus on that instead of problem solving duties of congress. . I want to hear news dominated by government governing not firebombing personal attacks and the constant playing the race card. I think the Jan 6 riots at the capital investigations may reveal very damaging material on Trump. If one recalls a day or two before the event he was speaking in Georgia and was relating (threatening ? ) his enemies and the democrats had a very big surprise coming and that they’d be shaking in their boots very soon. Looking back it seems as though he was forwarning the very event that occurred. Did he know what was in store ? It seems so if you listen closely to that Georgia speech before the crowd with Air Force 1 in his background.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I’ve got to go back and look at that one Carl. Didn’t remember it! But I agree with you. IF (and it’s a big “if”) Trump can win, the bigger question becomes, “Can he govern”? Or will he consistently be impeached for garbage because Democrats hate him so much? To me, that in and of itself should be an impeachable offense!


  2. The attacks on our leaders for untrue matters have a long history and the accusations in many instances are pretty far fetched and even absurd and certainly inappropriate. A read of JFK’s “Profiles in Courage” is the best example of honorable men that were crucified by their enemies that I can think of.

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    1. It’s been going on since Roman times (and probably before). It’s just gotten very ugly and personal since W. I can’t recall anyone actually begging for someone to assassinate the president prior to that!


  3. An excellent analysis.

    As you say, Trump has the solid backing of most conservatives, but that isn’t enough to win an election. If the poll numbers are accurate, Trump cannot win if more than half of independents oppose his candidacy; this is the cost of Trump’s infantile nature. So, given that more Democrats are feeding at the trough than conservatives, I can’t imagine a Trump victory in 2024. The only other possible candidate (with a snowball’s chance) is DeSantis, but with his wife under treatment for breast cancer (and three small children at home), he may not be in a position to take up the challenge any time soon.

    Again, as you say, it may come down to a question of how motivated the communists are to vote in the next round. Biden is going to run again, that’s certain. If Trump runs, Biden doesn’t have to do very much to motivate Democrats to vote — Trump’s candidacy will do that for him. On the other hand, Biden does run against someone credible, like DeSantis, then I suspect Biden will shelve Harris and choose someone else to excite his base. Earlier, you wondered who Biden might select as a running mate if not Harris, and that horrid name Hillary surfaced. I don’t know how toxic she is among lucid Democrats, but if Biden wanted to excite the conservative voters, that might do it.

    We do live in interesting times.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Oh, I agree we live in interesting times. I’m not so sure that Hillary would be the choice though. First of all, I hear she’s looking at running AGAINST Biden in the primaries. She’s not at all happy with him. I can’t see her taking the number two position, and even if she did, I think there are a lot in the Democrat party (not to mention independents) that want to see the Clinton’s just go away. You may want to look at someone like Elizabeth Warren as a replacement to Harris. She’s uber-leftist, and if Joe were to win a second term, he’s closer to checking out, especially if what Ted Cruz says is accurate about the Republicans looking to impeach Biden if they take over the House.


  4. When I hear “Hillary” , I am ready to gag and vomit. However, she’d be a much better president than Biden and I don’t think she’d allow open borders and allow the gang violence and lawless looting and since she’d have to prove herself as a woman I think she would be a hard ass internationaly not a mindless goofball like Biden. As far as impeaching Biden they’d have tons of proof just showing incompetence and him as a threat to the secirty of the USA on just the open borders issue alone. He has also nullified and dismissed all immigration law enacted by congress as well as disabled our security enties: Border Patrol, ICE and Homeland Security.

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