It’s a question that will get you a million different answers depending on whom you ask. If you talk to Democrats, it’s the issue that they’ve been waiting for. If you talk to Republicans, it’s no big deal because there are a million other issues that are more prevalent. Will it matter at all?
I am not sure at this point. First of all, if the Supreme Court never had this leak, would it had changed the outcome next month? Doubtful. If they are going to find that the whole national abortion strategy should be a states’ rights issue, it wouldn’t matter if it came out in April, May, or June. When it comes out, regardless the outcome, it will have some impact, for sure.
Is it going to be the calm of the “big red storm” everybody has been predicting? Nope. Sorry, but there are just as many people that feel that abortion shouldn’t be legal and those that feel it should. It’s about as evenly divided as can be in this country. The last poll I saw said 51% said the Supreme Court should not overturn Roe. 49% said they should. That’s not what I would call enough to be the number one issue in an election.
When you look at inflation, supply chain problems, immigration out of control, crime in the streets, a looming recession, and a Congress that can’t get anything done, even though the Democrats control both houses of it, those are issues that matter more to people than abortion. And, even quite a few Democrats (Ruth Bader Ginsburg among them) have said that the logic behind Roe passing muster in 1973 was flawed beyond belief. Justices totally bypassed the 10th Amendment to get to the14th Amendment in finding a way to get it done.
Is this going to tip the balance of power in Congress? Nope. I know Dems are out there fundraising right now trying to tell people that “women’s health” is becoming the number one issue in the country. It hasn’t been for decades, and it won’t be this time around either. I don’t care what side of the abortion issue you’re on, there just aren’t going to be enough people fighting for it to really care and really make a difference. The Supreme Court, if indeed the leaked decision stands, is just correcting a mistake that it made some fifty years ago. I’m surprised actually, that it took this long to get it done.
I still think there is going to be somewhat of a red wave this November. This was a shock to Democrats, but only because they lost and they weren’t thinking they were going to lose. There is nothing that they can do at this point to right that ship because it’s sailed. Packing the court isn’t going to do it because a) there isn’t time and b) even if they got it through both houses of Congress, and got Biden to sign it into law, the blowback from the American people would be vicious. Deciding that the Justices should have term limits of some sort, works a little better in the minds of the public, but then the call for Congress to have term limits will be front and center and that’s something they don’t want to come within a hundred miles of.
And of course, you’ve got conservatives on both parties that are fundraising as well, saying that if Democrats succeed in keeping Congress, it pushes the US further and further to the left and the Supreme Court will be “punished” for what it did to abortion.
Breathe deep and don’t worry. November will be here soon enough!
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!