Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip?

We have an election coming up in just, what? 15 days? And Al Weaver from The Hill decided to post an article on the Seven Senate seats most likely to flip. Unfortunately, he got it wrong. Let me explain why, and give you what’s really going to happen.

The first seat that Weaver says is going to flip is Pennsylvania. He couldn’t get it more backwards if he tried. The seat is currently held by Republicans, but Pat Toomey is retiring. So, you’ve got the current Lt. Governor, John Fetterman (D) up against TV Doctor, Mehmet Oz (R). Most have said that Fetterman was the odds on favorite to win. However, the latest poll says that it’s a dead heat and a tie right now just days before the only debate between the two. The influx of crime in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have taken traditional Democrat strongholds and thrown them for a loop. Add to that Fetterman’s apparently failing health (he’s requested all sorts of special favors just to debate Oz), and it’s evident, this is anything but likely to flip.

Weaver did get the second state right in Nevada. Adam Laxalt (R) has been leading incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto by a few points for a couple of months now. There really hasn’t been any swing back to Cortez Masto. This one looks like the Republicans biggest chance to flip a seat.

Georgia could be the third flip according to Weaver. However Raphael Warnock (D), and Herschel Walker (R), have both had a bunch of stumbles along the way. While Warnock is certainly the better speaker, he has a lot of baggage including accusations that he ran a camp for kids and was accused of sexual misconduct there (not necessarily him, but his staff). Meanwhile Walker has been accused of paying for an abortion for a former girlfriend after coming out as totally against abortion. He admits he gave her $700, but says he doesn’t know what it was for. Both are playing out as October surprises for the candidates and the race is only slightly favoring Warnock. Voting in Georgia began last week with the highest early voting totals in history.

Now the next one has me scratching my head. Weaver declares that Wisconsin could flip. Ron Johnson (R) is in a tough race with Mandela Barnes (D) but most polls show him up by five or six points. I hardly think that qualifies as a “flippable” seat. Tight race? Yes, flippable? No. And in their debates, Johnson has mopped the floor with Barnes. I can’t see this one flipping!

In North Carolina, Republicans are hoping that Congressman, Ted Budd (R) can hold the seat that retiring Senator, Richard Burr (R) is leaving. Budd has been leading in the polls against Cheri Beasley (D). The latest poll has Budd up by six points.

Weaver is off the rails in claiming that Ohio is also a seat that could flip. RINO Rob Portman is leaving the Senate, and the race is between JD Vance (R), and Tim Ryan (D). Vance has been favored throughout and while the race is close (2.5 to 4 points depending on the survey), Ryan’s problem is he hasn’t gotten more than 45% of the responses in any of the polls so far. And in this climate with the economy, crime, inflation, and border security all huge issues, if you don’t have 50%, chances of you getting late breaking votes are probably nil. Vance is going to win this one, though it will be close.

Weaver’s last state is New Hampshire, where incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) leads Don Bolduc (R) by five or six points. This is not a flip in anyone’s mind. Bolduc has done an admirable job to keep it close, and had Governor Chris Sununu decided to run, he would have most assuredly beaten Hassan. But he didn’t. This is not going to flip.

What puzzles me most about Weaver’s article is the fact that totally forgot Arizona. Mark Kelly (D) is throwing the kitchen sink against newcomer Blake Masters (R). Masters has been outspent four to one, but has pulled into a tie. It seems the more Kelly advertises and talks, the worse he gets. They had a debate a little more than a week ago and most believe that Masters beat Kelly by a good margin. I’m still hopeful for a flip here, but it will be close either way you look at it.

So basically, Al Weaver is off in five of the seven states that he predicts. That’s not a hearty prediction by any means. That’s pandering to the Democrat base in hopes of juicing them up enough to want to get them off the couch to actually vote. And no, abortion isn’t going to be the thing that does it. As James Carville said 30 years ago…”It’s the economy stupid!”

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!


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