Fetterman’s Folly

Tonight is the night that Pennsylvanians have been waiting for. Well, a lot of them anyway. It’s the night that John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz square off in their only debate, and it couldn’t come at a more crucial time for both political camps.

Oz had challenged Fetterman to debate as early as this summer, and Fetterman refused citing his recent stroke that he suffered in May. While Oz said he was certainly mindful of Fetterman’s condition, he would concede all sorts of things so Fetterman would be able to debate him. In the end, the pressure got to the Lt. Governor. He agreed to debate Oz once, after the mail in voting had started, as long as he got extra time to answer questions, and had a teleprompter that gave him a written question instead of just the oral question. He said that he sometimes has problems picking out the words people are saying.

The thing Fetterman doesn’t say is that he is doing the debate because the race has been tightening for the past three months. If you go back to July, Fetterman had a solid double digit lead over Oz. That lead has since evaporated. And it’s not because of Fetterman’s health necessarily. Oz has been hammering Fetterman on crime, making it the showcase campaign issue. Every time there is a murder, a shooting, a robbery, or an assault in Pittsburgh or Philadelphia, Oz hones in on it as a Fetterman-caused incident because he’s known to be soft on crime.

So, the debate is going to tackle the issues that Pennsylvanians care about most. Crime, Education, Inflation, Taxes, and Abortion are the big five in that order. And four of the five play very well into Oz’ corner. Abortion has been waning as a campaign issue around the country since Democrats all over the country have been hammering it as a major campaign theme since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson ruling back in June.

Here’s the thing. Democrats realize that, like a lot of Republican candidates running for office, they are going to be out-gunned when it comes to televised debates. Time and time again, Democrats don’t have the same communications skills that their Republican counterparts do. We see it with Oz and Fetterman in Pennsylvania. We see it in Arizona where Kari Lake’s 27 years as a newscaster on TV has caused Democrat Katie Hobbs to refuse to debate her. We have seen it in several races. So, the Dems have tried to downplay the debate.

Their take is that if Fetterman shows up and doesn’t end up spitting up on stage or having another stroke, he’s going to do better than most thought he would. The real truth of the matter is, Fetterman has to show the voters that his stroke is pretty much over (as he has claimed and his doctor issued such a statement last week). He needs to be cogent, alert, focused, and attentive. He can’t make up stories about Oz, saying, as he has, that Oz is making fun of him because of his condition. That’s just a lie and won’t get anywhere near a pity vote.

If Fetterman stumbles at all in this debate, especially after all of the concessions Oz made just to get him to appear, it’s going to be about a 2 point fall in the polls, and that’s something Fetterman can’t afford to give up. Not unless he likes being Lt. Governor!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

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