If Not Biden, Who?

Most of America, according to the latest polling, don’t want Joe Biden to run for president in 2024. They’ve had enough. Some 70% of Americans have said they want someone new in the White House come January 20th. And while we’ve certainly all been able to detail all of the foibles of #46, the question remains, that if not Biden, who?

Oh, it’s not just Republicans that are clamoring about someone new either. Democrats are starting once again, to climb on board.

If you’ll recall, well over 50% of Democrats basically said they wanted someone other than Biden back in the summer. I think I saw that number peak around 65% of Dems. Right after the midterms, when the Democrats out-performed their expectations, Biden saw a bit of a bump. All of a sudden, folks started realizing that he WAS going to run again, and that they were going to have to deal with him in the primaries if they wanted someone else. The folks rooting for Biden to run, especially on the Democrat side dropped to under 50%. But it’s back above now.

So, it begs the question…if Joe Biden doesn’t run, who do Democrats turn to in order to keep control of the White House? The big three names that keep popping up are K-baby Harris, by virtue she sits in the second seat right now, Gavin Newsome, current Governor of California, and Transportation Secretary, :Pete Buttigieg. But as always happens, even when it seems that the nominee is a shoo-in, like with Hillary Clinton, there are some token candidates running against the favorite. I expect that to be the case this time out as well.

So, will Bernie Sanders run? The guy is older than dirt. Elizabeth Warren has about as much baggage as Hillary had. You’ve got Michigan Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, who just won reelection in November. And then you’ve got the regular cast of characters that we’re all familiar with. The Cory Bookers’, the Amy Klobuchars’, and it drops off from there to include what I call the “Marianne Williams’ list”. These are people who may get 1% in the primary voting but have no chance at winning the nomination. In this group I would add people like Sanders, Warren, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Stacey Abrams, North Carolina Governor, Roy Cooper, and New Orleans Mayor, Mitch Landrieu. They would fill out a debate stage, but so would mannequins.

I guess what I’m trying to say here is that if you look at that list, the Democrats have a very short bench. They did as well in 2020. I mean, if they were that close to nominating Bernie Sanders? It took a last minute pitch from James Clyburn to sway the South Carolina vote Biden’s way? As long as the GOP decides to run someone of quality, and I’m not including Donald Trump in that mix, I think they are going to have a very hard time beating any GOP candidate, especially someone like a Ron DeSantis.

Now, understand, I’m not saying DeSantis is the ONLY Republican candidate that has a shot at winning the White House. I’m sure there are others out there that haven’t yet expressed a desire to run, but could. I’m saying at the moment, DeSantis is head of the class.

Democrats have a very difficult task ahead of them if you think about it. Let’s say Biden does decide to run. Let’s say he does get the nomination again. It’s going to be a very difficult election season for the left. I’m not saying impossible, just difficult. Not only do you have an unpopular president running for reelection during a time when the economy is predicted to be less than ideal, but you also have 21 Senators that are looking to defend their seats. It’s highly likely IF the GOP can find quality candidates to fill those rolls, that they take the Senate in 2024.

The key here is to understand that most Americans, and I’m not saying all Republicans, just most Americans don’t want Biden to run, but they also don’t want Trump in politics any more either. I think that’s the message that we have to take away from last months’ midterms. Trump proved to the world he doesn’t have the Midas touch when it comes to picking and endorsing candidates. We saw that in the four battleground states, and we saw it in the Arizona Governor’s race (which Kari Lake still is fighting by the way).

Regardless what Biden decides to do as far as 2024 is concerned, unless there is a surprise candidate out there, it’s going to be a real interesting time to watch!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

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