My One Big Fear This November

Here we are, just a few days away from what could be a monumental election result. Most of the country is turning red and are planning on (or already have) voting for Republicans. It’s a foregone conclusion that the House of Representatives will be in Republican hands come next January. And it looks like the Senate is slipping away from the Democrats as we speak. As I write this, here in the desert, the Libertarian candidate for US Senate has bowed out of the race, and has endorsed Blake Masters over the bald incumbent, Mark Kelly.

So why do I have a fear?

It’s because Republicans are great at following, but having been a political junkie for decades, I’ve noticed they aren’t that good when it comes to leading when they rule Congress. In fact, with rare exceptions they suck at it. Now, that’s not to say that they’re going to be as bad or worse than the group of slack-jawed idiots running Capitol Hill now. Nothing could be farther from the truth. But lets look at history.

Only 12 times since 1960 has the House, the Senate, and the Presidency all gone to one party. Eight times the Democrats held the power of all three, the GOP has held it four times. Democrats are the only party to hold sway for more than two consecutive terms having led all three governmental posts throughout the 1960’s (1961 to January 1969 when Nixon took over in the White House).

My point is simple. Whenever the GOP has managed to take over even just Congress, they haven’t had much success at running things. Oh, they did for a good while back in 1994 when Newt Gingrich was able to run on the Contract With America. Until Kevin McCarthy unveiled his Commitment To America, it hadn’t been tried since. But once in power, the GOP seems to waste time and effort on meaningless things.

Remember 2010? The House became Republican, and even though the Democrats controlled the Senate, the one thing that couldn’t get passed was getting rid of Obamacare, which was the reason Republicans won the House. They would have another chance to do it again in 2017. It passed the House, but John McCain’s holdout vote in the Senate caused the whole thing to come crashing down.

And there’s the rub.

What we are seeing this term with Democrats is the way Republicans typically have led in Congress. There are the factions that fight among themselves, much like the progress/socialist wing of the party is fighting with the mainstream wing of the Democrats today. What the Republicans need to do, is control Congress and force Joe Biden to do THEIR bidding, not the other way around. Why is it so important that the GOP takes control of the Senate? If all we get is the House back, then it becomes 2010 all over again and nothing will change.

Oh, don’t get me wrong, having gridlock in Congress is a great thing. Nothing gets passed in Congress usually means good things for America. But you also don’t tear down all the garbage that the Dems have forced upon us when they were in charge. And, don’t forget, Biden is supposedly in charge for another two years. That means in the event of someone leaving the Supreme Court, or filling the federal bench, Biden gets to nominate someone. And that person most assuredly will be very liberal. If the Republicans hold sway in the Senate, they control whether a nominee gets appointed or not. That is very important going forward!

If Republicans get good at legislating and leading, winning both sides of Congress will be an awesome advantage and cause Biden to move to the right to get things done, especially with a conservative Supreme Court. If they are going to fight among themselves as they’ve been historically apt to do, at the very best, we’ve created gridlock. But it sure beats what I’ve been watching for two years!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Kickin’ ‘Em When You’re Down

I don’t think there are too many people out there that would bet a dollar on a “blue wave” coming on November 8th. The odds of Democrats pulling off enough surprises in races around the country, legitimate or not, to reverse what seems to be a trend that is being cast in cement is pretty clear. Republicans are getting ready to take over Congress. Not just the House, but the Senate as well. And it will appear that of the four “toss up states”, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, all of them could be heading into the GOP’s column!

And what are those folks that are running for office on the Democrat side doing?

They are screaming that it’s all their party’s leadership fault. That’s right, Nancy Pelosi, Chuckles Schumer, and Joe Biden are getting the blame for the crappy showing in the polls. Now, to be fair, Pelosi and Schumer have done a terrible job at running Congress for the past two years. They haven’t really tackled any issue that could change the big reason Republicans are poised to take over Congress. Issues that matter most are inflation (which admittedly, the Congress can do little about other than stop spending money!), a slow economy with a ton of supply-chain issues, a porous southern border that is allowing not only illegals to get through, but also terrorists, murderers, and a lot of sketchy characters you wouldn’t invite into your house.

Tim Ryan (D-OH) was probably the first, along with the Wackjob Five to call for Pelosi and Schumer to be taken down as leaders and replaced. They are all saying that it’s time that a new generation of leadership take over. And to be honest, they’re right. Pelosi is 82 years old. Biden is 79 years old, and Schumer is the kid of the bunch at 71. That’s not boding very well for picking up the 18-30 year old vote!

Democrats big problem is that the younger people that are getting elected are a little bit too far left to lead the country into anything except a socialist revolution. Very few people that are running and are younger are what you would call a “moderate Democrat”. Most in the middle say those folks don’t exist anymore.

For the foreseeable future anyway, Biden, Schumer, and Pelosi will most likely live to see the end of the year. After that, I’m betting that Biden will cling to his post but not run for reelection; Schumer will become Minority Leader in the Senate just to be able to stay in front of the TV cameras; and Pelosi, when she sees how bad the red wave is going to be, will retire to spend more time with hubby Paul and help him rehab from his skull surgery.

Generational change is needed, not just for the Dems, but for the Republicans as well. Donald Trump is 76 years old. Mitch McConnell is 80, and Kevin McCarthy is the spring chicken at 57. What’s that saying when the youngest leader in the Republican party is only eight years away from Medicare? One shining star for the GOP is Ron DeSantis. The Florida Governor clocks in at 44 years old, and is a rising star in national politics. If you look at other “leaders” in the party, you’d have to talk about Ted Cruz (he’s 51), Marco Rubio (also 51), and as an aside, five of the six oldest members of the Senate are all Republicans! The youngest member of the upper body is Arkansas’ Tom Cotton at 37.

I think Tim Ryan may be right that it’s time for the older Democrats to step aside and usher in some younger blood. The problem with that is, they need to get people that can win state-wide elections in their states and not go too far left. Just being another AOC or Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren isn’t going to help Democrats’ matters much if at all!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Did Anybody Else Pick Up On This?

Oh, it was rather subtle. It kind of snuck in like an intruder in the middle of the night. But it was there. I almost did a double take when I heard it. It started with Joe Biden, but before the end of the day last Thursday, it was pretty much everywhere.

The Democrats have changed their play for the last week of the midterms!

If you go back and recall the TV commercials you’ve been watching over the past six months or so, it’s been basically a two-note samba. There has been the whole abortion issue, and how any Republican running for any office wants to totally take away a “woman’s right to choose”. Oh, they make a very nice case how government shouldn’t be involved in medical decisions (so tell me WHY we have Obamacare?), and how these women had fought for the “right” to have the “right to choose” for a half a century! And now the Republicans want to take it away entirely! And then the other commercial you’ve seen is that if the GOP gets control of Congress, they want to “sunset” Social Security and Medicare. That is a direct attempt to scare senior citizens into believing that the nasty GOP is after them! It doesn’t matter that the GOP has long called for the privatization of both programs, which would save the government trillions of dollars a year. It’s just wrong that our senior citizens would actually want to invest in the stock market (which is most likely how a lot of them actually were able to retire in the first place through their 401k’s!)

Now, the song has changed.

Now, the Democrats have realized after a whole summer of abortion and taking away Social Security ads, they had it wrong. So, with just a few days left in the midterm campaigns, they’ve decided that they are going to change the tune. It’s not about abortion. And it’s not about Medicare or Social Security. It’s about the economy stupid!

See, the latest GDP numbers came out showing a 2.6% increase in the third quarter. That means no recession! That means that whatever the Democrats are doing is working! What it doesn’t mean is inflation is coming down. It doesn’t mean that the economy is getting any better. It doesn’t mean your gasoline prices are back to $2.35 a gallon. But that is going to be the Democrats message for the last week or so of this campaign. Trust the people that put you in this mess to handle the economy (even though about 70% of the people who are actually doing the voting say that they trust Republicans more to handle the economic issues!). The Republicans are going to crash the economy in 2023 if they are elected to Congress!

So, let’s talk about that for a minute. Most economists that I’ve heard have said that yes, we rebounded a bit in the third quarter due to government spending. That was the over-riding factor as to why we had a positive GDP number. But they warn that we aren’t out of the woods yet. In fact, we’re heading deeper into the woods and there is a recession looming. So, the Democrats are setting the stage to blame Republicans for it just by getting elected to Congress. Forget that we have a lousy fourth quarter again, which the GOP has nothing to do with. Forget that even if Republicans take over Congress after next weeks’ elections, they aren’t going to be able to do anything at all regarding the economy or anything else without Joe Biden’s name attached to it. It’s still a Joe Biden economy. It’s just that Joe Biden isn’t going to be able to have his way whenever he wants.

Actually, it’s a smart play for the Democrats, and one that I’m surprised they didn’t come up with sooner. They overplayed their hand on the whole abortion issue. Abortion has fallen to like seventh in most polls as far as the top campaign issue. That means people are tired of hearing about it. And yet, some ads keep coming! What the Democrats aren’t talking about are high gas prices, a lack of a national energy policy, how we are sliding under a three week supply of diesel fuel for the truckers out there. We’re not hearing anything on crime. We’re not hearing anything on the southern border crisis, which has reached epidemic proportions. We’re not hearing about supply chain shortages. We’re hearing that the Democrats’ way to fix the economy is to continue to do what put us into this mess in the first place. And they want us to believe that these are smart people?

In short, don’t fall for half-truths. Don’t fall for lies. When someone is backed up against the wall, they’ll either capitulate or they’ll fight harder. Dems realize that they are about to lose the whole progressive movement on November 8th. Just stay the course and realize you’re doing the right thing!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

One Week Away…And You’re Still Looking At Polls?

We’re one week away from electing the next Congress and filling a bunch of state-wide seats all over the country. And most people are still enamored by polling. Oh, the Republicans now have a three point lead in the generic ballot poll! Oh, look, Mehmet Oz is now leading in Pennsylvania. And Lee Zeldin has pulled ahead of Kathy Hochul in the New York Governor’s race.

Uh…no. They haven’t.

Nobody is ahead of anything yet. It’s because we are all tuned in to watching polls, and I’m the first to raise my hand and say, “GUILTY”. I’ve blogged about it here for months. Every time there was a shift in the polls one way or another I had to write about it as if it were a big deal. Here’s a dirty little secret.

It’s not a big deal at all.

It’s time we Americans learn something. Polling was very popular when Gallup started it back in 1935. That was almost 90 years ago! It’s only been in the past five to ten years we Americans have figured out how to game the pollsters. We tell them we’re Republican when we’re Democrat. We say we’re going to vote for candidate A, when all along we are going to vote for candidate B. And we try to figure out which side of the divide they are on, so we can mess with them.

Basically what it’s done is having polling companies get it really wrong. Like saying Hillary Clinton in 2016 was going to win by 12 points on election day. Or that Donald Trump was going to win in Georgia in 2020. And it’s not all our fault.

I also blame the polling companies who are as biased as media companies when it comes to elections. They want either the left or the right to win and aren’t afraid to slant their questions to get you to answer one way or another. When I smell a “push-poll” I usually play along with what they want to hear, knowing full well that it’s not reality. That way, they publish this outlier poll that says Candidate A is going to win in a landslide!

Personally, I take a lot of online polling, and I love to mess with the political polling people. I’m not the only one that does that either by the way. And what it’s done is make polls so unreliable, we get exactly what we are seeing today… we are watching the polling come down to being a toss up in every race in the country. In reality, very few races are going to be that close next week. And that’s why you shouldn’t be looking at polling companies and their data. It’s flawed.

There is a better way.

Find a betting website that takes bets on political races. There are ton of them out there. These are people that are going to be putting real money on the line. They do the homework, and they stay up to date on it because most of the people are actually professional gamblers that do everything they can to sway the odds in their favor. If you follow one of these sites, you’ll find out what’s really happening, and it’ll be a lot more credible than any polling outfit. For instance, in 2020, the betters all thought that Joe Biden was going to beat Donald Trump. It wasn’t even close. They basically called it in every single state!

And this year, the betters are saying it’s going to be a red wave. It’s not going to be close. Why do I feel comfortable saying the GOP will win not just the House, but the Senate as well? Simple. 65.1% of the betters out there have put money on the GOP winning. That’s up 0.7% in the last day, and up a whopping 7.7% in the last week. Only 34.9% say the Dems will hold the Senate. And that changed on October 14th. Up until that time Democrats had a fairly sizable lead in maintaining the Senate. So, what happened on October 14th? That was the Raphael Warnock/Herschel Walker debate in Georgia. The betters saw that as a true win for Walker, and saw the Senate going red. It’s grown every week since then. And since that time we’ve had the Fetterman/Oz debate in Pennsylvania that everyone and their cousin said was an absolute travesty for Fetterman.

In the House of Representatives, 87.9% of the money is riding on a Republican takeover of the House. Only 12.1% of the money backs the Democrats. And that’s WITH the GOP losing 0.5% over the past day. What it also tells me is that the GOP gained 2.5% in the last week!

So, as we go through this final week before the midterms, forget about the polls. They’re usually wrong anyway. Follow the money as the old saying goes.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

What Happens To Dems If The Lose The House?

It’s a question that not many are talking about right now, even though it seems the Republicans taking back the House of Representatives is a foregone conclusion. Fewer Democrats are willing to talk about what happens next. But hey! I’ve got time on my hands, let’s do it!

Let’s just say for grins and giggles that the Republicans do what everyone and their cousin says they are going to do and take back the House. Let’s say it’s not close. After all, Bobo Obama lost what? 60 seats after the 2010 midterms? And he was a MUCH better president than Joe Biden!

So, let’s say the GOP has a rather commanding lead in the House. That means that there will most likely be a leadership change, or at the very least a call for one among Democrats. Nancy Pelosi has hinted that this is her swan song this year. If the Dems get trounced badly in November, could she just announce that she’s going to retire to join her husband in getting DUI’s as a new hobby? It’s a possibility.

But what happens then? You’ve got two other dinosaurs in Steny Hoyer (D-MD), the current Majority Leader in the House, and Jim Clyburn (D-SC) the current Majority Whip, who are the number two and three guys in the Dems’ lineup currently. Both are in their 80’s as is Pelosi. And there is a new generation of Representative that is clamoring to have their day in the leadership position. Do all three resign their positions? Do they get voted out? And will they stay in Congress if that happens? All three seats are what would be called “safe seats”, unless they run Kermit the Frog.

Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Katherine Clark (D-MA), and Pete Aguilar (D-CA) have all been positioning themselves for years to get to one of the top spots. They would be the odds on favorites to take over the Democrats. And it would be historic in a sense as if Jeffries got to be Minority Leader or Speaker, he would be the first African American in such a role in US history.

What about others? What about an uber-progressive group, like the Wackjob Five? AOC and her band of idiots may also want a stab at leadership, but my feeling is they don’t have anywhere near the backing that Jeffries, Clark and Aguilar have. They raise a stink and love to be in front of a camera, but they really don’t have the backing of many outside their districts.

Personally, I don’t see Pelosi, Hoyer, or Clyburn hanging on if the Democrats lose control of the House. Why would they? They’ve been there forever, and don’t have anything left to prove. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they just float away.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Dealing With Inflation

Democrats have decided that the way they need to run for reelection and hold on to Congress is to do two things. The abortion issue is key and they need to hammer that every chance they get. And they need to basically say that the Republicans are just “anti-Democrat” and don’t have a plan on how to fix things. Some added a third thing, saying that the GOP wants to take away Medicare and Social Security from seniors, which is a blatant lie.

Anyway, we’ve learned from the recent polling that the whole abortion issue has pretty much peaked in the minds of the voters. In some polls that list the top election issues, abortion comes in with between 5 and 7% of the vote, while things like the economy and inflation and crime are in the high 70’s. Now there are others (most liberal polling companies) that say that abortion is still a “top five” issue and is up in the 60% range, but even Democrats are saying they hit it too hard too soon and have peaked.

So, let’s tackle the big issue. What WILL Republicans do to lower inflation and help the economy if they win back Congress. They aren’t going to have a veto-proof majority any way you look at it, so they aren’t going to be able to just reverse everything from the Infrastructure Bill to the Build Back Better Light bill. Joe Biden would never sign those things.

What they can do is change things going forward. First and foremost, they can stop the horrendous spending that Biden has embarked on. They can (and lots have) file lawsuits to stop the student debt reduction that Biden signed as an executive order. Remember, Biden was able to bypass Congress because he said it was part of an emergency situation, being the pandemic. But Biden himself has said the pandemic is over. So, if that’s the case, there is no emergency, and he would have no standing to do what he’s trying to do.

Other than that, Congress should severely cut back on spending from this point on. Drastically cut all social programs in the budget. Take money out of future budgets for infrastructure programs that aren’t fixing roads and bridges and airports, and do the same for everything that Biden has added for Green New Deal programs. Threaten to shut down the government if he doesn’t go along with it (because that saves money as well).

And make sure, if the GOP takes back the Senate that no one with any sort of liberal bent is even able to get a hearing when it comes to judicial appointments. One of the best things that happened because of Donald Trump was the GOP taking a solid 5-4 and in a lot of cases 6-3 lead in the Supreme Court. And you’re seeing what happens farther down the judicial line as conservative judges were appointed by the 234 judges Trump appointed to federal benches. If you stop liberals from getting seats, you’re basically utilizing the judicial branch for the conservatives. That can’t be a bad thing!

Stopping the spending is the easiest way in the world to bring this economic crisis to a halt and to stem the tide of inflation. Only the FED can change interest rates, and that will suck if you owe money for a while, but other than that, the prices will come down if we stop flooding the market with cheap cash. That has been the cause of this economic boondoggle, regardless what Joe Biden says. It wasn’t the pandemic. It wasn’t Putin’s invasion of Ukraine (though spending $54 billion hasn’t helped!), and it is only one thing. Joe Biden spending money like a drunken sailor.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip?

We have an election coming up in just, what? 15 days? And Al Weaver from The Hill decided to post an article on the Seven Senate seats most likely to flip. Unfortunately, he got it wrong. Let me explain why, and give you what’s really going to happen.

The first seat that Weaver says is going to flip is Pennsylvania. He couldn’t get it more backwards if he tried. The seat is currently held by Republicans, but Pat Toomey is retiring. So, you’ve got the current Lt. Governor, John Fetterman (D) up against TV Doctor, Mehmet Oz (R). Most have said that Fetterman was the odds on favorite to win. However, the latest poll says that it’s a dead heat and a tie right now just days before the only debate between the two. The influx of crime in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have taken traditional Democrat strongholds and thrown them for a loop. Add to that Fetterman’s apparently failing health (he’s requested all sorts of special favors just to debate Oz), and it’s evident, this is anything but likely to flip.

Weaver did get the second state right in Nevada. Adam Laxalt (R) has been leading incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto by a few points for a couple of months now. There really hasn’t been any swing back to Cortez Masto. This one looks like the Republicans biggest chance to flip a seat.

Georgia could be the third flip according to Weaver. However Raphael Warnock (D), and Herschel Walker (R), have both had a bunch of stumbles along the way. While Warnock is certainly the better speaker, he has a lot of baggage including accusations that he ran a camp for kids and was accused of sexual misconduct there (not necessarily him, but his staff). Meanwhile Walker has been accused of paying for an abortion for a former girlfriend after coming out as totally against abortion. He admits he gave her $700, but says he doesn’t know what it was for. Both are playing out as October surprises for the candidates and the race is only slightly favoring Warnock. Voting in Georgia began last week with the highest early voting totals in history.

Now the next one has me scratching my head. Weaver declares that Wisconsin could flip. Ron Johnson (R) is in a tough race with Mandela Barnes (D) but most polls show him up by five or six points. I hardly think that qualifies as a “flippable” seat. Tight race? Yes, flippable? No. And in their debates, Johnson has mopped the floor with Barnes. I can’t see this one flipping!

In North Carolina, Republicans are hoping that Congressman, Ted Budd (R) can hold the seat that retiring Senator, Richard Burr (R) is leaving. Budd has been leading in the polls against Cheri Beasley (D). The latest poll has Budd up by six points.

Weaver is off the rails in claiming that Ohio is also a seat that could flip. RINO Rob Portman is leaving the Senate, and the race is between JD Vance (R), and Tim Ryan (D). Vance has been favored throughout and while the race is close (2.5 to 4 points depending on the survey), Ryan’s problem is he hasn’t gotten more than 45% of the responses in any of the polls so far. And in this climate with the economy, crime, inflation, and border security all huge issues, if you don’t have 50%, chances of you getting late breaking votes are probably nil. Vance is going to win this one, though it will be close.

Weaver’s last state is New Hampshire, where incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) leads Don Bolduc (R) by five or six points. This is not a flip in anyone’s mind. Bolduc has done an admirable job to keep it close, and had Governor Chris Sununu decided to run, he would have most assuredly beaten Hassan. But he didn’t. This is not going to flip.

What puzzles me most about Weaver’s article is the fact that totally forgot Arizona. Mark Kelly (D) is throwing the kitchen sink against newcomer Blake Masters (R). Masters has been outspent four to one, but has pulled into a tie. It seems the more Kelly advertises and talks, the worse he gets. They had a debate a little more than a week ago and most believe that Masters beat Kelly by a good margin. I’m still hopeful for a flip here, but it will be close either way you look at it.

So basically, Al Weaver is off in five of the seven states that he predicts. That’s not a hearty prediction by any means. That’s pandering to the Democrat base in hopes of juicing them up enough to want to get them off the couch to actually vote. And no, abortion isn’t going to be the thing that does it. As James Carville said 30 years ago…”It’s the economy stupid!”

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

The Peter Principle

Oh, you know what that is. Basically, the Peter Principle is what happens when someone appears to have done a great job, they get promoted up the line, and do a slightly less great job. It keeps going until they get promoted to a job they suck at. And that is exactly what we see happening in our federal government right now.

Think about it. With very few exceptions, most of the people in Congress (and in the White House) started out on the local level. Maybe they were on a School Board somewhere, or a City Council. And then they went to the State House, and then the State Senate. Some may even have graduated to Governor of their state. And then they decided to run for a federal office like a Representative or a Senator. And there they realized they didn’t have to do much else for the rest of their lives.

And, for the most part, they got less and less effective the higher they went. Take Joe Biden for example. He started out his political career running (and winning) for a seat on the New Castle (DE) County Council. He was there for about two years before running for the US Senate, and winning. That was back in 1972. He was in the Senate from January of 1973 until he became Bobo Obama’s Vice President in January of 2009! Let me do the math…that was 37 years in the US Senate. You would figure he would have done a lot in that time. Well, sort of. He was instrumental in passing the Comprehensive Crime Control Act, which to this day African Americans blame him for. Oh. And he was the Chairman of the Judiciary Committee that basically shot down Robert Bork’s nomination to the Supreme Court back in 1988. Three years later, he was still on that committee as the whole Clarance Thomas/Anita Hill thing took place. His questions were so convoluted that Thomas had a hard time keeping up with what he was asking.

As Vice President, Biden did one thing typically. He increased the wealth of his son, Hunter, and himself by taking Hunter with him to Ukraine and China so the kid could make millions. Of course, we know by the leaked emails now that “the big guy” got about 10% of the take. That has yet to be proven, but it shows Joe’s penchant for the “one set of rules for thee, and another set for me” theory. Biden also was the guy that former Obama Defense Secretary, Robert Gates said, had “been on the wrong side of every foreign policy decision for the past 50 years.”

If there was ever a Peter Principle come to life for real, it’s been Joe Biden. Of course, you can point to others in his administration who have followed the same path to “success”. Alejandro Mayorkas, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, and yes, even Karine Jean-Pierre have all used the Peter Principle to advance themselves in government.

Now, before the two or three liberals who read this explode, telling me that there were several Republicans out there doing the same thing, I would agree. The Peter Principle is certainly non-partisan! But for illustration’s sake, it’s a LOT easier to bring up the current Democrats’ foibles, as they are so obvious and so many.

The Peter Principle is alive and well at every level of business and government. We have it here in the desert, where I sat on a Board of Directors for almost seven years. We hired a guy to be GM that daily proves me right that he had no business being interviewed, much less hired. It’s plaguing our nation, and it needs to stop. We have to stop hiring people based on the fact that they currently work somewhere, or they have the right gender or color of their skin, or they are of a certain sexual orientation. Here’s a novel concept. Why don’t we hire the best person for the job regardless all of the other factors? That would seem to make sense to me. I don’t have a clue what Democrats are missing!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Can The GOP Win In November?

That’s what we are going to look at today. And while we still have the possibility of the old “October Surprise”, it’s effect has been greatly diminished because of the “mail-in ballot”. While the election itself isn’t going to take place for over a month, many places are already voting. That’s sad because a LOT can happen between now and then! Heck, there haven’t even been any debates yet!

Let’s compare several key races in the battleground states to see how they did several weeks ago, and how they are doing now, shall we?

First of all in Arizona, Mark Kelly was leading Blake Masters by 9 points three weeks back. That lead is now down to 2 points. However, there are about 10 anti-Masters ad for every one pro-Masters ad on TV right now. It’s so bad that Mitch McConnell’s PAC, who has been helping Masters just cancelled almost $10 million in ads for the final weeks of the campaign, opting to spend the money in tighter, more-winnable races.

Val Demings in Florida was up by 4 points over incumbent Marco Rubio three weeks ago. Today, Rubio has flipped the results and he’s up by 4 points over Demings.

The Senate race in Georgia has been called one of the most important in the country. Three weeks ago, incumbent Raphael Warnock led Herschel Walker by 4 points. Today that race is in a virtual tie.

In Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto was leading Adam Laxalt by 3 points. Today, Laxalt is up by 2.

In New Hampshire, incumbent Maggie Hassan was leading Donald Bolduc by 4 points. Today, Hassan has increased the lead to 8 points.

In North Carolina, Ted Budd and Cheri Beasley were tied three weeks ago. Today, Budd has a three point lead (the seat is open due to a Republican Richard Burr’s retirement).

In Ohio, there hasn’t been much change. JD Vance led Tim Ryan by 3 points three weeks ago, and that lead has been holding. It’s still three points (this race is also an open seat due to Rob Portman’s retirement).

And in one of the other “most watched” races, Pennsylvania’s Senate race, John Fetterman led Mehmet Oz by 11 points just three weeks ago. Today it’s down to 3 points and that’s before the news hit about Fetterman not paying his property taxes for six years while the mayor of Braddock, PA. He racked up some 67 lawsuits and liens during that time. In fairness, he HAS paid all of them now, but it took six years to clean up his mess. I’m sure that will have some effect.

So, is it a GOP or a Democrat Senate? We’re going to have to wait until well after election day to find out. My question is, how many “discovered” mail-in ballots are they going to find stuffed in a closet somewhere in these close races?

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Winning Isn’t Enough

Republicans are excited about the midterm elections and have been since Joe Biden took office. Democrats are worried and are already throwing down the gauntlet as to what the country will look like under a split Congress at best. According to several Democrats, nothing will get done (usually not necessarily a bad thing!) and there will be more and more government shutdowns as Congress disagrees with itself as to what the spending priorities and amounts should be.

Five Thirty Eight has the Republicans winning the House of Representatives with a 70% likelihood. They have the Democrats maintaining control of the Senate with the same percentage.

So, if that’s the case, it’s not enough for the Republicans to play defense. They need to get on offense and tell the country exactly what they will do if they become the majority party in Congress. So far, Dems have been able to control the message, making Donald Trump the foe, and talking January 6th protest and abortion. They say the GOP is going to “take away” Social Security, which is a lie because all the GOP is doing is suggesting that Social Security be privatized as a way to maintain it past 2035 when it goes bankrupt. That’s really nothing more than investing in the stock market, something that every single person with a 401k account currently does.

But it’s not enough for the GOP to react to that. They need to come up with a plan on what they are going to do if elected to lead in the House. Democrats think the GOP will hold all sorts of hearings on Alejandro Mayorkas, Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, and the like. They will hold hearings on Critical Race Theory and Climate Change. They’ll tackle hearings on overspending. But that’s not enough. America needs answers, not hearings.

Here’s what I’d do if I were in charge…

First fix the friggin’ border. Finish the wall, hire 87,000 Border Patrol agents, not IRS agents. I’d defund that IRS plan in a heartbeat and send the money to fix the border. Then I would come up with a comprehensive immigration reform package that basically says who is allowed into this country, who isn’t, and what the punishment is, if you come in illegally for any reason.

Next up, we tackle over-spending. I’d get a Constitutional Amendment for a balanced budget. If Dems want to crank up the Bureau of Engraving’s printing presses 24/7, then they have to find a way to pay for it. That means raising taxes on everyone. If that’s done, you’ll see inflation come down.

I would also put the size of the Supreme Court into a Constitutional Amendment. It should be nine people. That’s what it’s been at for the majority of time the Supreme Court has been around. The Judiciary Act of 1869 states that the Supreme Court should have a Chief Justice and eight associate justices. It’s already federal law. It needs to be a Constitutional Amendment so Democrats (or Republicans) can’t pack the court.

I would make it a federal law that for the safety of the nation, all communities must hire and pay the wages of a police force and keep them trained. Not a token cop or two, but a force! Put more blue on the streets, and watch the crime rate decline.

Next up, I’d make it illegal to fund programs with questionable data, like Climate Change. It’s not that the climate isn’t changing. It’s that they keep changing the models saying humans are the cause of it and what the catastrophic results would be.

I would make it illegal for anyone in Congress to buy or sell stock, and the same goes for anyone in their families. You can’t hide behind your spouse’s trades anymore. We all know you’re giving them inside information! If Martha Stewart can go to jail for it, so can Nancy and Paul Pelosi. And yes, that would include Republicans that trade on it as well (there are a lot on each side of the aisle).

Finally, I would put term limits into effect. We have them for the President. We have them in 35 states. We should have them in Congress as well.

That should be enough to keep everyone busy for two years until we win back the White House and take control of the Senate!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!