Joe Biden is in the race for reelection in 2024. He’s going to be facing a GOP challenger, which at the moment appears to be Donald Trump, in a rematch of 2020. Now, it’s not historical in the fact that there is a rematch for the presidency. It’s happened six other times throughout our nation’s history, the most recent being Dwight D. Eisenhower against Adlai Stevenson back in the 1956 election (they also met in 1952).
Donald Trump is currently leading the charge to be the Republican nominee. Now, the interesting thing here is that the country doesn’t want either Biden nor Trump to run. 73% according to the latest NBC News poll, say Biden shouldn’t run. Trump is nearly as bad with 70% saying they don’t want him to run. The reasons are obvious, but varied. People don’t want Biden to run again because he’s too old. They don’t want Trump to run again because he’s too controversial.
So, how does Biden win reelection?
He wins reelection IF he runs against Donald Trump. Put simply, he can do another hide-in-the-basement campaign, and unless there is something that turns the economy upside down between now and election day, or the Hunter Biden thing blows up and involves him, Biden will win reelection. There isn’t any way for Donald Trump to flip the five states that he lost in 2020 that cost him the election.
So how does the Republicans win the election?
If they nominate anybody but Donald Trump. Yes, I’ve seen the polls that have Trump beating Joe Biden by 7 points, and Ron DeSantis beats Biden by 8 points. But you know as well as I that this far out from election day, those polls don’t mean much at all. But let’s say for whatever reason, Trump doesn’t win the primary and doesn’t become the nominee. Let’s say for grins and giggles that Ron DeSantis does become the nominee. DeSantis doesn’t have the baggage that Trump has. He is more likely to flip Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and even Nevada. If he does that, even if he does three of those states, he wins the election and puts Biden out of office.
The fact is that Trump is toxic right now to a lot of voters. Can you recall another time in our recent past when a candidate for president was actually toxic? How about 2016? Hillary Clinton had so much baggage with her that she couldn’t have won that race if Joe Kennedy had bought 40 states! It happens that way. And while Donald Trump did do some very good things while in office, he also didn’t do a lot of things he said he was going to do. How much of the wall was completed under Trump? If you’re talking walls and barriers where there were none before, that number is 15 miles. That’s it. If you’re talking about barriers that impede (but don’t stop) foot traffic and vehicular traffic, that number is 350 miles. That’s 350 miles of barriers over an area that is 1,954 miles long.
Trump also failed in rallying the world with his decision to pull out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, as bad of a deal as it was. Most of the world, certainly Europe would rather have better relations with Iran than what we would want. And the fact that Trump pulled out of the deal, which some say caused Iran to accelerate their nuclear program, caused a lot of consternation with western countries allied with the US.
Trump was going to “repeal and replace” Obamacare. That never happened, in part because Arizona Senator, John McCain voted against it, killing the chances of it happening. And, a lot of folks that are armchair quarterbacking the whole COVID thing say that while Trump did some things right, the whole mask thing, and closing of the schools was unnecessary. A lot of that had to do with the fact Trump placed a lot of faith in what Anthony Fauci had to say, most of which has been debunked now.
But if someone else were to run, and show America that they could have the ideals that Trump had as far as conservatism goes, and that they have better ideas and are more presidential, they will sweep to victory over someone that is seen as bumbling, stumbling, and antiquated in Joe Biden. And we haven’t even talked about K-baby Harris being on the ticket yet. That’s isn’t going to help Biden at all.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!
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