What NH Proves?

So, it looks like Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders for all intents and purposes, split Iowa. They came away as the two big winners and got most of the state delegates. Joe Biden, as everyone knows now, came away the loser. And that is actually a big deal. Let’s go back to 2004. John Kerry won Iowa. He ended up the nominee. In 2008, Bobo Obama won Iowa. He ended up the nominee. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Iowa. She ended up the nominee. Are you seeing a pattern here?

What does New Hampshire’s primary prove today? Well, not much. Because as Iowa has been able to accurately predict the Democrat nominee, New Hampshire has pretty much sucked at that, and they’ve proven to be able to predict the Republican nominee. Again, going back to 2008 (since George W. Bush was the incumbent in 2004), John McCain won New Hampshire. In 2012, Mitt Romney won New Hampshire, and in 2016, Donald Trump won New Hampshire. It shows that at least with recent history, Iowa chooses the nominee better with Democrats, and New Hampshire does better picking Republican nominees.

In New Hampshire in 2004, they did pick the eventual nominee in John Kerry, who was also almost a native son being from nearby Massachusetts. In 2008, when Bobo Obama was the nominee, Hillary Clinton won the primary, and in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was the nominee, Bernie Sanders won the primary.

So, today’s primary, probably doesn’t prove anything…except that the two guys that are at the top of the latest polls, Sanders and Buttigieg came out of Iowa basically winners. Sanders won the popular vote there, Buttigieg got I think one or two more delegates.

And what does all of that mean? Nothing. Right now the Democrat party is in disarray. The Iowa Caucus was a mess. The impeachment trial blew up in the faces of the Democrats in DC. Nancy Pelosi embarrassed not only herself, but her party with her antics at the State of the Union speech by ripping up the speech. And all of that kinda sorta has me a little concerned. Not scared just yet, but concerned.

Remember back when the Republicans were blamed for shutting down the government, and everyone felt going into an election year it would have a major impact on the outcome? It didn’t. Remember when anytime there has been some major happening against one of the two major parties nine or ten months out, it looks like it will doom them in the upcoming election? It usually doesn’t. That’s because America has a very short attention span anymore. We are all stuck in a 24 hour news cycle, and what was a major catastrophe yesterday is pretty well forgotten by the week’s end.

And while I really hope and pray that Americans remember all of the silly childish antics the Democrats have put on display here (the latest one has AOC declaring that Donald Trump pays African American people to say they support him!), there’s something gnawing at me that says it can all turn around very quickly between now and election day. Somehow I don’t think any of this is going to play into the voters’ minds come November.

That is the sad part. Because just as Iowa predicts Democrat nominees and New Hampshire predicts Republican nominees, America seems to forget. It’s going to be more about those two or three debates that Trump has with whomever comes out of the Democrat side, and less about Congress and impeachment, or tearing up a speech. That’s wrong. Democrats should be held responsible for their actions in Congress over the last two years. All of their investigations when they should have been doing the peoples’ business is just a waste of taxpayer money. They are wrong for doing that and they need to be held accountable for it.

The presidential candidates are wrong in thinking they can promise the world to the voters and expect the voters to come running to them. Hillary Clinton was actually right on that account. There will be a price to pay for their exuberance. And that does play into Donald Trump’s hands.

Let’s just hope America wakes up to the fraud that has become the Democrat party before it’s too late!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Trump’s Night/Biden’s Loss

Donald Trump will remember February 4, 2020 as a watershed moment in his presidency. Oh, it won’t be without controversy…but it was a watershed moment. Joe Biden, probably would remember it as the day he couldn’t leave Iowa fast enough.

Let’s examine what happened in the two biggest news stories yesterday.

First of all, in Iowa, we had to wait until very late in the day…5pm EST to find out that Pete Buttigieg was actually right when he said he was leaving Iowa victorious! Buttigieg did indeed surprise the nation by winning, at least so far, Iowa. When the first numbers came in with 62% of the vote verified and counted, he was just ahead of Bernie Sanders, who was in second, and Elizabeth Warren finished third. Those numbers held up overnight. Joe Biden meanwhile finished fourth, just ahead of Amy Klobuchar. That wasn’t a very good showing for the former VP, who had the state all to himself and Buttigieg while the Senators, Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, and Bennett were locked away in the impeachment trial. And now, it’s on to New Hampshire, where you’d expect that Sanders from neighboring Vermont, and Warren from nearby Massachusetts will continue to do well. Biden is just hoping after New Hampshire, when they get to Nevada and South Carolina, he’ll hit his “blue wall” and do much better!

And then a couple of hours later, it was back at the Capitol for the second big news item of the day. And I won’t bore you with a blow by blow recap…I’m sure if you were interested you watched it. But there were two things in the speech, or should I say surrounding the speech that I found totally amazing. One was a snub, and the other a very classless move.

The snub happened at the beginning, as Donald Trump was handing Vice President, Mike Pence, and Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi their copies of the speech. Pence took his, Pelosi took hers, and then held out her hand for Trump to shake it and he turned away. She chortled and gave a slight laugh. I’m not sure if Trump actually snubbed the Speaker or not, or if he was just turning away because he didn’t offer to shake Pence’s hand either.

The second act, which was totally classless and has made a mountain of comment all over the news channels, was at the end. As Trump was saying “Thank you, God bless you, and God bless the United States of America”, Pelosi and Pence stood up, and Pelosi ripped up a copy of the speech. Total classless move.

Look, I understand there’s bad blood between these two, and frankly, I don’t blame Trump for that. Pelosi went on a witch hunt that will culminate today with Trump’s acquittal and it will be from what I hear, a bi-partisan acquittal. Pelosi bought a bill of goods on that one and lost. For her to act like a two year old that didn’t get a cookie and tear up a speech is not only juvenile, it’s unprofessional and idiotic. It shows that the job is certainly too big for her to handle. She’s not worthy to be called “Speaker”. She needs to resign and do so immediately. If not, the Republicans should fight to take back the House and evict her from the body.

I will add one other thing. It was a very touching moment when Donald Trump introduced Rush Limbaugh and had Melania give him the Medal of Freedom for his years of tireless service to America. Rush deserves it, and to give it to him now, as he prepares to enter the fight of his life is certainly fitting and the right thing to do. Though I will say, everyone in the country knew Limbaugh was going to get the medal at the SOTU. He apparently missed the message because he acted like it was the first he knew of it. And I found that hard to believe since it was on every news channel in existence.

And with that, on to today’s impeachment vote!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

And The Winner Is…

Actually, the winner in Iowa last night was no one. At least, that’s the way it is as I’m writing this at 3:27am in the desert!

See, they changed a lot of stuff in Iowa compared to 2016. They were announcing not one set of numbers, but three sets…the first was the first round “viability”, meaning they received at least 15% of the vote in the caucuses. Then there is the overall winner number…how many “votes” the winner got compared to everyone else…the raw vote totals. And finally, there are the delegate awards; how many people were going to the state convention to elect the 41 delegates that Iowans were going to get at the Democrat National Convention this summer.

Now, add to that the fact that they were using an app for the first time ever, and the app failed in a bunch of instances.

Here’s what we do know:

Turnout was “on par” with 2016, which was about 171,000 people, state wide. That was down from 2008 when Bobo Obama won Iowa and 240,000 people turned out. That would mean that the “excitement factor” for the Iowans didn’t appear to be there. Remember, in 2016 there were only three people running; Hillary, Bernie, and Martin O’Malley from Maryland. That meant there wasn’t much to choose from!

So, what happened at all of the candidates “watch parties”? Well, Bernie Sanders said he thought he was going to end up doing very, very well. Joe Biden said he was in it for the long haul, and was moving on to New Hampshire (where he is right now). And Pete Buttigieg? Well, the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana declared victory without any numbers being released.

Meanwhile, the campaigns were all grousing at the way the Iowa Democrat Party was running things. They were supposed to have streamlined everything over the past four years to make it more “transparent” and more fair for everybody. Instead, it looked like a cluster you know what. When the state party held a conference call with all of the campaigns about 11pm Iowa time, the campaigns shot off so many questions that the guy from the state party hung up on them. And it didn’t get better at all.

In fact, Donald Trump tweeted out, How can you trust a party to run healthcare and your government and keep you safe when they can’t even get it right at their first primary? He also hinted that there may be the same move afoot as four years ago when the fix was in against Sanders. Don’t forget, the mainstream party, people like Biden, and Nancy Pelosi, and former Democrat candidate John Kerry, have made comments that Bernie Sanders could take down the Democrat party if he were the nominee! That’s a pretty big step.

What is going to be interesting when (and if) caucus results are released, hopefully today… is to see how Elizabeth Warren is going to end up. All of the internal stuff that got leaked out showed she was really sucking sewer water in Iowa. If that were to happen, and she were to bail on her campaign, it’s most likely her supporters would go over to Sanders, and make it even tougher on Biden. And that, of course, would make it even easier for Donald Trump to win reelection!

So, we wait. And we wait. And we don’t forget that tonight is going to be the State Of The Union speech. And we will wait and see what happens after that!

Carry on world. You’re dismissed!

Will Iowa “Bern”?

Ah…Caucus Day in the Hawkeye State! Could there be any better notice to the American public that things are about to get crazy? Of course, not of the Republican side. But Democrats all over the country will be watching. They’ll be trying to decide not only who will win Iowa’s delegates to the convention, which may not come until later in the process, but also who performed well enough to continue on, and who fell short of expectations!

As I’ve said all along, though there are still four “viable” candidates, there are going to be really on two fighting for the win. Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden will go head to head, and according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls, Biden leads Bernie by 3.6%. That, however doesn’t account for the surge Sanders has put on in the last few days while he was in Washington.

The other two…and actually it may be three…that will be looking to do as well as the “experts” predict they will do are Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and an outside chance for Amy Klobuchar. She is currently running fifth there, primarily because she’s from the midwest neighborhood of Minnesota. The rest of the field is in the low single digits and won’t be figuring in. In fact, look for a few of them to drop out either this week, or after New Hampshire.

There are going to be three things to watch for from today’s caucuses. First is, obviously, who wins. If Sanders can upend Biden, it’s going to throw a monkey wrench into the process for Biden. Sanders is way out in front of Biden in New Hampshire (with him being from neighboring Vermont), and if he were to win those two, he’d certainly get a boost nationally. Second thing to watch is the Des Moines Register. They pulled their final poll over the weekend because one of the respondents claimed that they omitted a candidate’s name from the list when asking for a preference, and that could have swayed the outcome somewhat. Rather than publish an inaccurate poll, the Register decided to scrap the poll altogether.

The third thing to watch is Elizabeth Warren’s performance. Going into the contest, she is running fourth behind Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg with 14.6% of the vote. If she were to come in at say 10% or under, my prediction of her being the first major candidate to drop out would come to fruition. And she’s been falling recently nationally, which doesn’t bode well for the donors. Those folks love to see surges, not dives in the polling!

Whatever happens today, it starts the long process of picking a nominee for the left. And the Democrats in this country have to choose whether or not they want to shove the country too far to the left to get elected, or stay the course as a liberal, not socialist party. It will indeed, be interesting, and I will have the popcorn ready!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Latest Poll Numbers…Do They Mean Anything?

As the flock of Democrat candidates chow down on fair food at the Iowa State Fair this past week, I found it very interesting the pandering that went on. And then I thought with all of the fanfare going on…just how reliable are the first two states at predicting the eventual nominee.

I only went back to 2004, and obviously since that time the incumbent has run twice and there has been an “open” field with no incumbent twice. Here was what I found interesting in Iowa and in New Hampshire.

First of all, the current field in Iowa, according to RealClearPolitics shows that Joe Biden is in the lead with 25.3% on the average. He’s followed by Elizabeth Warren with 16.3%, and Kamala Harris with 14.3%. Bernie Sanders has 12.3%. That hasn’t changed much over the past month or so, so the State Fair hasn’t had much of an impact. Everyone else is in single digits.

Back in 2004, John Kerry won the Iowa Caucus. He became the nominee that year. In 2008, Barack Obama won Iowa. He became the nominee that year. In 2012, Obama again won, being the incumbent…and in 2016, Hillary Clinton won, also becoming the nominee that year. Result? Iowa does a pretty good job at picking Democrats’ who later become the nominee.

So, what about Republicans? Well, obviously this year, Donald Trump is the incumbent, so the numbers don’t matter, but in 2016, Ted Cruz won Iowa (Trump finished second). In 2012, it was Rick Santorum beating out Mitt Romney. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won the state, and in 2004, it was George W. Bush because he was the incumbent. So, while Iowans do a really good job of picking the eventual nominee for Democrats, they pretty much suck at picking the GOP’s standard bearer.

Now, let’s move to New Hampshire.

Currently in New Hampshire, Joe Biden is the front runner with an average of 21.8%. Bernie Sanders, from neighboring Vermont is second with 19.3. Elizabeth Warren is third with 15.8%, and Kamala Harris has 9.0%. So, what’s New Hampshire done in the past?

On the left, they nominated Bernie Sanders in 2004. He ended up losing the nomination to John Kerry. In 2008, they went with Hillary Clinton. She ended up losing the nomination to Barack Obama. Obama was the incumbent in 2012, so it’s not a factor, and in 2016, it was once again, Bernie winning New Hampshire and losing out to Hillary for the nomination. New Hampshire has failed to pick the Democrat nominee in the three open elections on the Democrat side since 2004.

On the Republican side, something interesting happened. In 2004, Bush was the incumbent, so he sailed through. But in 2008, John McCain won New Hampshire, and ended up becoming the nominee…and in 2012, Mitt Romney won New Hampshire, he also became the nominee. And in 2016, Donald Trump won New Hampshire. He ended up the nominee as well. They’re batting 1.000 over the last three presidential runs!

So…if you want to know who the Democrats will run, watch the Iowa Caucus. If you want to know who the Republicans’ nominee will be, watch the New Hampshire Primary. And the funny thing…New Hampshire went for Clinton in 2016…Iowa went for Trump. You would have thought it would have been the other way around.

We know one person that won’t win either…John Hickenlooper. The former Governor of Colorado quit this week in order to “ponder a Senate run”.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!