Five Questions Trump Must Answer

The Hill has come out with an interesting article written by Niall Stanage about the upcoming presidential campaign. Basically it says there are five questions that must be answered before Donald Trump gets the GOP nod to be it’s presidential candidate again. And they are questions that every American, Republican or not, should be asking.

First off, what is the affect of an indictment on Donald Trump? Manhattan’s District Attorney is readying charges that Trump paid off porn star, Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential campaign. The big questions I have regarding this are, did Trump pay off Daniels? Is it actually illegal to pay “hush money”, and hasn’t this thing hit the statute of limitations already? It’s been seven years! Of course, what the affect is on Trump’s campaign if he is indeed indicted is something that’s already being hotly debated, and we’ve discussed it here earlier. I think it will have some impact, but the true Trump supporters are going to hang with him. They’ll see it as he paints the picture…it’s another witch hunt.

Second question that would need to be answered is just how solid is Trump’s support? He didn’t fare very well in the November elections as far as his endorsed candidates are concerned. Oh, the majority of the won, but the candidates in the swing states didn’t do all that well. Herschel Walker lost in Georgia, Kari Lake lost in Arizona. Blake Masters also lost in Arizona, Adam Laxalt lost a close race in Nevada. Mehmet Oz got beat by John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, and Doug Mastriano got swamped in the Governor’s race there. That’s six very key races that Trump lost…in states that he lost to Joe Biden in. He obviously hasn’t been able to turn the corner in those states just yet.

Of course, a lot can be made out of this past election cycle. If you look at the candidates that I listed above, really only Adam Laxalt was a quality candidate. Maybe you can throw Mastriano into the mix, but even he was a little squirrely in his campaign. Walker, Lake, Masters, and Oz, were all just terribly weak.

The third question that needs to be answered is the question of age. You know it’s going to be a factor for Joe Biden. Hell, he’s even said it would be a factor moving forward. But Donald Trump has been able to skate on that question so far, for pretty much one simple reason. He is in his mid 70’s right now, and would be 82 if he wins and serves a full second term. But he doesn’t look like he’s in his mid 70’s. And he’s got a lot more spring in his step than Biden does. He also doesn’t make as many mental errors. So, yes…while a lot of the country is saying its time for us to find younger, more in touch leaders, and let the old guard retire to their pastures, you have the top two contenders for their party’s nomination in Trump and Biden, well past retirement age in any other industry. That is going to be a question going forward.

The fourth question is very simply, is Trump still electable? The last thing any Republican, or conservative wants to do is waste yet another election cycle on a candidate that doesn’t have a chance in hell of getting elected. We’ve seen the GOP do that time and time again, just because “it’s someone’s turn”. Look at Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney, all losers and very weak candidates. But all ran and never had a ghost of a chance of winning. My question for Trump isn’t his policies, I’ve been in favor of most of them during his first term. My big question is, can Trump do something to reverse the hatred toward him. Currently, his approval rating is just 34%. And Joe Biden isn’t faring much better at 38%. That tells me there is an “Anybody but 2020 candidates” mentality going on out there. This is probably going to be the toughest question for Trump to answer.

Finally, the question looms about Ron DeSantis. He’s as conservative as Trump, if not more-so. He’s a LOT younger at only 44 years old, so he is able to get around the age question, and would make Joe Biden look like a walking zombie. If DeSantis gets into the race after the Florida legislative session later on this spring or early summer, he is going to be probably the only candidate for the GOP nod that Trump really has to worry about. If he is as big of a rock star in political circles as it looked last November, he is going to rival Ronald Reagan’s appeal. He says all the right things, and as long as there aren’t too many skeletons in his closet (something Trump has always had to worry about), he should give Trump a run for his money next year at this time.

There you have it. Five questions that Donald Trump needs to answer to the American people before we decide on whether or not he’s worthy of getting another shot at the Oval Office. And to be honest, I’m not all that certain that he’s going to be able to do it!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Is A GOP Senate Possible BEFORE 2024?

Well, if you’re wondering if the GOP has enough oomph left in the tank after failing to have the anticipated midterm results, and if they can actually succeed in taking over the Senate in 2024, I can’t answer that. I CAN say unequivocally that I think they can actually do it before 2024.

Here’s why.

There are always Senators and Representatives that go out and get elected, and then for some reason, they retire mid-stream. Maybe it’s a health issue. Sometimes it’s a family issue, but it seems that there are always things going on that will preclude at least some members of Congress from completing their term. This year and next year is not any different. According to The Hill, there are five Senators that could step down between today and the election in 2024. So, in no particular order, here they are:

Joe Manchin: Manchin is the only Democrat to win a state-wide election in West Virginia. He’s been a thorn in Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer’s side for the past two years, and most likely will continue to be. He has stated that he has no desire to switch parties and become a Republican, and I don’t see him becoming an independent, like Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema did. But I do see him not running in 2024. He’s already hinted at that. But becoming a thorn in Schumer’s side has a price to pay. And Manchin may not enjoy that his ethics and morals differ so greatly from a party that he once loved. He may just bolt and resign prior to the election in 2024.

John Testor: The Montana Senator has won his election as a Democrat in a usually red state three times. But he’s not quite so sure that a fourth is in the cards. Testor is only 66 years old (he’ll be 68 by the 2024 elections), and while there are a ton of people older than him in the Senate, he may decide not to go through another battle with Matt Rosendale, who he only beat by single digits in 2018.

Bob Casey: Casey is a Democrat from Pennsylvania, and was recently diagnosed with colon cancer. Now, he says that his prognosis is good, and that he plans on beating it through some aggressive treatments, but you never can tell with cancer. And you can never tell about Pennsylvania. A lot will depend on who the Republicans decide to run in 2024 should Casey opt to stay in the fray. If it’s going to be a weak candidate like Mehmet Oz, the chances of this seat flipping are next to nothing. But never underestimate what a health problem can do to a sitting Senator. It happens all the time!

Tammy Baldwin: Baldwin watched, probably with tears in her eyes, as fellow Democrat, Mandela Barnes lost to Ron Johnson in one of the closest races of this past November. And with Wisconsin definitely a “battleground state” now with Trump having beaten Clinton in 2016, and Biden beating Trump by single digits in 2020, it could be interesting to see if Baldwin wants to go through the hassle, not knowing the outcome. Baldwin won her first race by 6 points and her reelection bid in 2018 by 10. But Ron Johnson’s win may signal that Wisconsin is ready to be a little more conservative than Baldwin may like, and she may decide to pull the plug before 2024.

Tim Kaine: Kaine, from Virginia is the former running mate of Hillary Clinton. He’s a two-term Senator and will most likely be facing an uphill election in a state that was once solidly blue, but has turned bright purple recently. The reason is simple. Glenn Younkin beat an incumbent Terry McAuliffe to win the Governor’s seat a few years back, and in 2021, the Republicans flipped the state’s House of Delegates. That could bode poorly for Kaine. Especially if Youngkin decides that he wants to run against him. Current polling shows that race a dead heat at the moment. Kaine may decide to jump ship, retire at 65, and enjoy his retirement.

If the Democrats see three of these guys retire or quit early, it could very well put the Republicans in charge of the Senate prior to 2024. All of the Governor’s of these states are Republicans with the exception of Pennsylvania. That would mean that if more than one would retire prior to the end of their term in 2024, the GOP would take back the Senate, and give Republicans the entire Congress.

And, while I really don’t see two or three retiring, there is always that possibility!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

The FINAL Post Mortem On Midterms

With Raphael Warnock’s win over Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate Runoff election this past Tuesday, the elections, for the most part are complete. There is one House race left to officially be decided. In the Colorado 3rd District, Lauren Boebert leads Adam Frisch by about 550 votes meaning that they are involved in a recount. He has already conceded to her, and she is expected to keep her House seat. But all of the remaining House and Senate seats have been decided. So, it’s time for a final post-mortem on the election.

First off, there was no red wave. There was, however, a red ripple. like dropping a very small pebble into the middle of a pond. The House of Representatives will change hands and the Republicans will be in charge next year. That’s regardless how Lauren Boebert ends up doing in the recount. Expect the GOP to have a four-seat majority. For Republicans, that’s the good news. But there’s plenty of bad news if you’re Republican.

First and foremost, there were four major Senate races that Republicans were hoping to win in order to shake up Congress entirely. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona were all in play. Some will include New Hampshire in that one, and only a few others would say Colorado’s seat held by Michael Bennett was possibly up for grabs. Neither turned out to be the case. But out of the four that the GOP had hoped to flip, they all stayed with the Democrats. Except of course Pennsylvania. That seat flipped from Republican to Democrat. That’s what gave the Democrats a 51-49 majority.

So, the question is why? What was the big lead up that this was going to be an historical election that would change the course of politics forever? We were told for months that the GOP would take over the House, and that it would certainly be by a lot more than four seats. We were told the Senate would most likely go to the Republicans as well, as this was a referendum on Joe Biden’s presidency. So what went wrong?

Well, I think there were three major issues at play in this year’s elections, and with apologies to Kari Lake, none of them involved voter fraud.

The first problem was that the quality of the candidates the Republicans chose to run in the primaries were not the best. Now, I’m not taking all of the races into account, just the four to six Senate seats that we discussed earlier. Let’s face it. Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, and Blake Masters were not good candidates at all. Neither were Joe O’Dea in Colorado or Don Bolduc in New Hampshire. Only Adam Laxalt was what I would call a quality candidate that could of won. So, when you start out with less quality than the opposition, unless you’re going to throw a ton of money at the race, you’re not going to win. And I have to blame Donald Trump for most of that. All of the people mentioned were Trump supported candidates. Only Laxalt had any political experience. And when you’re looking at unseating someone at the second highest level in government, next only to the president, you better have someone that knows how to play the political game. And let’s face it, Trump only chose candidates that went along with his theory that he had the 2020 election stolen from him.

The second problem was that the Democrats came loaded for bear in those four states. They spent oodles of money in each of them. I live in Arizona, and I was seeing ads for Mark Kelly long before I even knew who Blake Masters was. Let’s take a quick look at the amounts raised by the candidates according to Open Mark Kelly raised $79.3 million to Blake Masters’ $12.0 million in Arizona. In Pennsylvania, John Fetterman outspent Mehmet Oz $56.6 million to $40.3 million and that included $5 million of Oz’ own money. In Georgia, Raphael Warnock raised $150.5 million. Herschel Walker got $58.3 million, and in Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto raised $52.8 million to Adam Laxalt’s $15.5 million. Is it any wonder the Democrats defended their seats and took Pennsylvania? They outspent the Republicans by a 3-1 margin!

The final problem, and it’s being billed as one of the largest reasons the vote turned out the way it did, which I disagree with, was the Supreme Court ruling on abortion. I’ll say that it probably didn’t help the Republicans at all, but I’m not so sure it was the biggest reason the Dems did so well. I’d call it a distant third over all. After all, everyone knew what was coming back in April, when it was leaked.

The Republicans did gain the House, and that’s a good thing, but they have a big task at hand. Whomever gets elected Speaker in January needs to rule with an iron fist to keep this group together. It would also help if they focused on the problems We The People face, not what They The Politicians feel is important. They have a terrible record at determining what is important!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Is It Them Or Us?

Watching some “analysis” of the midterm elections over the past couple of weeks got me to thinking. I was of the frame of mind that this midterm election was exceptionally clear. Yes, it was a referendum on Joe Biden. What else could it be? And yes, it was a referendum on how Congress has done over the past two years. Again, what else is there? We’ve seen Congress take no action what-so-ever on little things like crime, border security, immigration reform, tax relief (except for college students, but that had nothing to do with Congress!), high inflation, and an economy that has slowed to almost zero growth for the year. What we got was hearings on January 6th that basically proved nothing. A bill that did help the chip industry out, which was necessary and nice. We got the Inflation Reduction Act, which did nothing to reduce inflation, and we got an infrastructure bill in which most of the money went to Green New Deal programs.

So, am I to blame for thinking that this election cycle was going to be a slam dunk? What the hell happened?

Somebody screwed up in production, and it’s time to ask the question, was it the Republicans who felt that just by saying a red wave was going to sweep over Washington, it was going to happen? Or was it the unwashed poor, huddled masses out there in America, who vote like it was a student council election in middle school? Did people pull the lever just because there was an (R) or a (D) after someone’s name? Or did they think that they voted for the best candidate, and in the very over-exposed elections in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, the best candidate did happen to be a Democrat?

It’s time to put the blame somewhere, and frankly, I’m torn. Yes, I think the GOP overplayed their hand quite a bit. Yes, I think that Donald Trump went out and endorsed people that agreed with him that his 2020 presidential election was stolen from him, regardless what their credentials were like. I mean, you can’t tell me that people like Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, and Kari Lake were qualified to be in executive leadership positions. Sorry, being an athlete or a TV star of sorts doesn’t qualify you to be a Governor or a Senator. Notice I left Adam Laxalt and Blake Masters off that list because they probably were the only qualified two of the five.

Or, do we focus the blame on those out there scattered across America that aren’t that smart, don’t care about the issues, only care about what the government can do for them, and the rest of the country be damned. I’m looking square in the faces of the Gen X’ers and the Millennials who seem to want to get to socialism faster than a speeding bullet. Are these folks smart enough to differentiate between the two candidates, or are they just looking for the best deal? This isn’t like buying a car you know. It’s about running a country. And I really don’t think that the majority of the youth in this country today cares about the rest of the world. They care about themselves. And what happens when they get lied to? They shrug their shoulders and go back to their X-Box.

I actually think there was a combination of the two examples that caused the election to be not so much more than a pinkish ripple. And the GOP had better wake up and look at what’s going on before 2024 shows up. If they don’t we’re going to be two more years down the road and I’m going to be saying the same things then that I’m saying today. I don’t think the GOP as a party takes elections as seriously as the Democrats. I don’t think they ever have. And the only reason they sometimes take power in DC is because the country gets tired of the Democrats. They realize that they aren’t going to get all of the bling the Dems promised them. They realize that they’ve been taken advantage of as a lot of the minority groups are just starting to wake up to. And they realize that there might be a better way.

The sad news is, I don’t know if the Republicans are actually the answer. There may be a third party of sorts out there, or a fourth or fifth. Are we becoming more like Europe, where one party isn’t going to be the majority party any longer, but the leaders in the various parties are going to have to coddle together enough of a majority to lead? If you look at the Republicans and the split between Trump and the rest of the party, and the Democrats and the split between the socialists and the more moderate progressives, that seems to be the case. We’ve already got four distinct parties, just under two tents. So, what happens to cause the split and when is that going to happen?

Just questions I’m thinking about today. As always, your comments are welcome!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Did Trump’s Endorsement Help?

That’s going to depend on who you ask. But when I look at the numbers I’d have to say it helped a little bit… but not a whole lot.

Donald Trump endorsed 495 candidates for the midterm elections. 241 of those were primary endorsements. Of the 241 candidates that he endorsed, 219 actually won for a success rate of 91%. That’s pretty good in pretty much anybody’s book. He went on and endorsed 254 candidates for the general election. Of that, 178 won (or are winning). That would be basically a 70% success rate.

But looking at the US Senate races, which were really what I would call the cherry on top of the sundae, he fared slightly better. Trump hit on 18 of 25 Senate races that he endorsed. He lost 4, and as I write this, there were three that were still being counted (though in those three, Herschel Walker is heading for a run off next month, Adam Laxalt is leading Catherine Cortez Masto by a couple points and should win, and Blake Masters looks to be losing Arizona pretty badly. The four that he lost? He had Gerald Malloy winning his seat in Vermont, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, and Leora Levy in Connecticutt. Now, really, only Oz had a shot at winning in PA, and that was a rather long shot considering he was down double digits back in August.

So, the question remains, did a Trump endorsement help? I think he helped in some of the closer races. Now, Trump will say his endorsement was the sole reason these people won, which I don’t believe for a minute. A lot of the people he backed were incumbents. And incumbents, when you get to the level of the House or Senate, are tough to beat, so it’s rather a safe bet. But there were a few places where people taking part in exit-poling said that a Trump endorsement caused them to vote against the candidate. Whether or not it was enough to cause them to lose, who knows?

There is a question going forward that we will just have to wait to find out. Trump is due to announce his candidacy for president on the 15th (next Tuesday). But after Ron DeSantis’ incredible landslide reelection in Florida, including Miami-Dade County and Palm Beach County, I can’t be the least bit surprised if DeSantis decides he can indeed take on Trump and beat him. If he were to do that, and win, there isn’t a Democrat alive that can beat DeSantis in the general election in 2024. And don’t forget, Trump could be facing indictments up the road. That will indeed tarnish his luster.

I can tell you that Blake Masters probably doesn’t believe that Donald Trump’s endorsement did that much for him. He probably would have loved to have had some of that Trump money so he could have run a few more ads in the state. As it was, he was outspent big time by Mark Kelly and his PAC’s. The smear campaign on Masters was incredible! And the fact that Peter Thiel’s money helped him get across the primary finish line, but was noticeably absent in the general election also played a big part.

And I guess you could say Kari Lake didn’t really think that Trump’s endorsement helped her a lot. She was leading in the polls by a fairly good margin, but didn’t finish strong and had a few Democrat PAC’s putting up some negative ads on her, Secretary of State candidate, Mark Finchem, and Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh. Lake was being viewed as a potential Vice Presidential candidate in 2024 had she won.

Is Trump all he thinks of himself to be? No. That part is obvious. He wasn’t able to pull Oz or Masters across the line, and either would have pretty much given the GOP the Senate. We’re still waiting, and the path is still there (at least as I write this) for Laxalt, Johnson, and Walker to give the GOP the upper chamber…but once again, we’re going to have to wait for a Georgia run-off for that to happen!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

So? Who Won “The Debate”?

Well, of course, that is going to depend on who you ask. But it appears that the “Big Debate”, the Lincoln/Douglas Debate of the 21st Century, went to Mehmet Oz in a landslide.

Oh, don’t get me wrong. There were quite a few libs out there that wanted to say what an admirable job John Fetterman did, seeing how he suffered a debilitating stroke just five months ago. But on substance…on what you bring to a debate stage? There was no doubt that Oz was the overall winner without much question.

Even liberals took to Twitter to ask why in the world Fetterman’s team ever would have let him take the debate stage against Oz. I can answer that one very quickly. What Fetterman has been doing on the campaign trail hasn’t been working. If it has, he would have played Katie Hobbs out here in the desert and refused to debate. Except, she isn’t leading in the polls.

Look, if you haven’t been able to watch the debate, I will give Fetterman credit for showing up. Let’s face it. Even without a stroke and at full mental capacity, Fetterman was up to his eyeballs in crap last night. Mehmet Oz has made a living over the last decade in front of a TV camera. You think he was the least bit worried or nervous? C’mon! Here’s a guy that has pitched some of the lamest medical devices in the history of the world to an adoring public and got away with it. Facing a stroke victim and having to keep a straight face and he bumbles his way through an answer? Childs play!

On substance, Fetterman apparently flip-flopped on his stance on fracking. He had earlier even signed a pledge stating that he would ban fracking. That’s not what came out of his mouth. He said during the debate that he always “supported fracking”. Ooops!

On a different subject, Fetterman said that he never backed a Bernie Sanders style socialist healthcare plan. However, back in 2016, Fetterman said that a national single-payer plan was “ideal”. Now, which was it?

Oz didn’t escape entirely. He was asked about abortion, and here was his reply, “There should not be involvement from the federal government in how states decide their abortion decisions,” Oz said. “As a physician, I’ve been in the room when there are some difficult conversations happening. I don’t want the federal government involved with that at all. I want women, doctors, local political leaders, letting the democracy that’s always allowed our nation to thrive, to put the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves.”

Liberals of course, had a problem with that. Anyone that comes out with any restrictions (including a states’ rights argument) on abortion is deemed to have lost any debate, or any sane person’s vote. Actually, what Oz said mimicked the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson decision and is actually the only correct legal decision the high court could have reached if you take emotion out of it.

Overall? Oz in a landslide. If this doesn’t move him into the lead over Fetterman, as he only trailed by 1.6% before the debate, I don’t think anything will. Move Pennsylvania into the safely RED column.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Fetterman’s Folly

Tonight is the night that Pennsylvanians have been waiting for. Well, a lot of them anyway. It’s the night that John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz square off in their only debate, and it couldn’t come at a more crucial time for both political camps.

Oz had challenged Fetterman to debate as early as this summer, and Fetterman refused citing his recent stroke that he suffered in May. While Oz said he was certainly mindful of Fetterman’s condition, he would concede all sorts of things so Fetterman would be able to debate him. In the end, the pressure got to the Lt. Governor. He agreed to debate Oz once, after the mail in voting had started, as long as he got extra time to answer questions, and had a teleprompter that gave him a written question instead of just the oral question. He said that he sometimes has problems picking out the words people are saying.

The thing Fetterman doesn’t say is that he is doing the debate because the race has been tightening for the past three months. If you go back to July, Fetterman had a solid double digit lead over Oz. That lead has since evaporated. And it’s not because of Fetterman’s health necessarily. Oz has been hammering Fetterman on crime, making it the showcase campaign issue. Every time there is a murder, a shooting, a robbery, or an assault in Pittsburgh or Philadelphia, Oz hones in on it as a Fetterman-caused incident because he’s known to be soft on crime.

So, the debate is going to tackle the issues that Pennsylvanians care about most. Crime, Education, Inflation, Taxes, and Abortion are the big five in that order. And four of the five play very well into Oz’ corner. Abortion has been waning as a campaign issue around the country since Democrats all over the country have been hammering it as a major campaign theme since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson ruling back in June.

Here’s the thing. Democrats realize that, like a lot of Republican candidates running for office, they are going to be out-gunned when it comes to televised debates. Time and time again, Democrats don’t have the same communications skills that their Republican counterparts do. We see it with Oz and Fetterman in Pennsylvania. We see it in Arizona where Kari Lake’s 27 years as a newscaster on TV has caused Democrat Katie Hobbs to refuse to debate her. We have seen it in several races. So, the Dems have tried to downplay the debate.

Their take is that if Fetterman shows up and doesn’t end up spitting up on stage or having another stroke, he’s going to do better than most thought he would. The real truth of the matter is, Fetterman has to show the voters that his stroke is pretty much over (as he has claimed and his doctor issued such a statement last week). He needs to be cogent, alert, focused, and attentive. He can’t make up stories about Oz, saying, as he has, that Oz is making fun of him because of his condition. That’s just a lie and won’t get anywhere near a pity vote.

If Fetterman stumbles at all in this debate, especially after all of the concessions Oz made just to get him to appear, it’s going to be about a 2 point fall in the polls, and that’s something Fetterman can’t afford to give up. Not unless he likes being Lt. Governor!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Here’s What America Thinks Midterms Are About…

I’ve spouted off pretty regularly now about how the GOP isn’t getting their message across, and how the Dems are trying to make this about abortion and taking away Social Security. Well, that’s nice that the parties are trying to define the election, but in essence, that’s not what matters. It matters what the PEOPLE think the midterms are all about. And it’s a pretty interesting comment.

It’s a referendum on Joe Biden.

At least that’s what 46% of the respondents to a survey taken by Rasmussen say. 40% say it’s about candidates and local issues, and 14% aren’t sure (still on summer break?).

A solid 50% of the 1,000 people surveyed said that if the Republicans win the House or Senate, that Joe Biden should temper his politics and become much more moderate.

So, what does that all mean? If a plurality of voters think that it’s all about Biden this time around, this should be a massive red wave, even with the meager Biden wins that he’s had in the last few weeks. And it raises a very interesting point. One of the major comments I keep getting from people is that Democrats don’t want to debate. We’re seeing it here in AZ, and you see it with the Fetterman/Oz battle in PA. It’s happening in a lot of other places as well.

When one side doesn’t want to debate it’s usually a sign that they are so far ahead in the polls that they can’t possibly do anything but fall if they debate. Usually it’s only the people trailing in the polls that want to debate because they feel they have something that will damage the leader. But in this case, it’s entirely different. The Democrats know they are going to have to distance themselves from Biden, and defend him because he’s in their party. That isn’t sitting well. So, they decide that they just don’t want to go through the hassle of prepping for a debate.

However, there are exceptions to that rule, and I can point to Fetterman/Oz, and here in AZ, the Governor’s race between Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs as an example. In both situations, the Republican candidates are extremely well versed in television. Oz had the “Dr. Oz” show on TV for years, and Kari Lake was one of Arizona’s most prominent newscasters for decades. Fetterman, having just suffered a stroke earlier this year is having problems speaking (Sorry John, I’m not making fun of you, I’m just stating a fact), and Hobbs is a career politician, not someone well-versed in television.

While Hobbs hasn’t chosen to debate Lake at all, Mark Kelly, himself on the hook for several lies in his political ads, has agreed to debate Blake Masters for the US Senate seat. But that’s simply because the race has tightened immensely in the past two weeks. Kelly had a 15 point lead a couple of weeks ago. Today it’s down to four. And Masters hadn’t run many ads throughout the summer months, but he’s starting to buy up TV time left and right, even though Kelly is outspending him 10-1.

The real focus on the midterms seems to be Joe Biden. If that’s the case, screaming that MAGA Republicans are a disaster for the democracy isn’t going to bode well for the Dems, even though there are several in Congress that echo Biden’s sentiments.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Is Dems’ Primary Plan Backfiring?

It’s not a very new or even well thought out plan. The Democrats nationally have been pouring millions of dollars into the primary campaigns of more right-wing candidates on the Republican side. Why would anyone do such a thing and back their potential opponents? Simple. They wanted to have weaker candidates make it through the GOP primaries so they would have a much easier time holding the House and Senate come midterm elections time.

The problem is the plan isn’t working.

What it has done is help a lot of Trump-supported candidates make it through the primary, which not only excites the left because they’re going to be running a campaign that makes this midterm a referendum on Donald Trump, but it also excites a lot of the Trump base who are now more excited about turning out at the polls on election day.

But that’s not what the nasty little secret is.

In a lot of parts of the country where this tactic was taking place, Democrats are watching in horror as the GOP candidates, who were behind, sometimes by double digits, like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania was, are now within the margin of error, and two months away from the midterm, are within striking distance to make a HUGE win for the GOP.

I’m not saying that the red wave is back, at least just yet. But the polling numbers I’m seeing from around the country are moving in that direction a tad. They need to keep moving that way. But there’s another sneaky little situation that the Democrats have found themselves in.

They can’t fight the GOP on being too far right.

All the Republican candidates have to do is mention that the Democrats funded their primary campaign to the tune of “X” millions of dollars, because they were the more sensible candidate, and it blows the credibility of the Democrats’ play right out the window. After all, why would you criticize a candidate for being a right-wing nut job, when you donated millions to their very campaign that you’re now chastising? You wouldn’t unless you want to get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.

It’s just the latest attempt of Democrats who understand they have a huge uphill battle to control Congress next year, and would do anything including voter fraud and intimidation, to win. It’s straight out of the Dems’ playbook. If you can’t win normally, change the rules. If you can’t change the rules, cheat. Winning is the only thing that matters.

Wouldn’t it be funny if they didn’t have enough money because of what they did in the primaries, to back their own candidates come November?

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Did The GOP Give Up On Blake Masters?

It appears so. The Senate Leadership Fund, which is Mitch McConnell’s baby, has pulled about $8 million in ad buys in Arizona. It’s also pulled way back on their planned ad buy in Alaska.

GOP nominee, Blake Masters is currently running about 8 points behind incumbent, Mark Kelly. Kelly has already been blitzing with ads throughout the state, and Masters is woefully short on his ad buy if he wants to catch up. Having the Senate Leadership Fund move money away from The Copper State doesn’t bode well for Masters.

Basically, it is a national numbers game for the SLF. They are banking on trying to flip at least one seat, while holding on two three seats that they feel may be in jeopardy. Currently, Republicans want to hold on to seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Only JD Vance in Ohio is leading his Democrat opponent. Mehmet Oz is anywhere between 4 and 11 points behind John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, and Ron Johnson is losing to Mandela Barnes by 2 points.

Now, add to that two other states that the GOP leadership hopes to flip…and it’s looking like Arizona isn’t going to be one of them. They are boosting money in Georgia, where GOP nominee Hershel Walker trails incumbent Raphael Warnock by 2 points (within the margin of error), but internal polling from Walker’s side has him dead even or slightly ahead. And in Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt has taken a 3 point lead over incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. So it may behoove the Republicans to throw Masters under the bus in Arizona if they can flip Georgia and Nevada…and still hold on to the three midwestern states.

Masters, for the most part, has been silent. He’s trailing in the polls and is proving to be a rather weak candidate, so it’s no wonder that the GOP leadership is deciding early not to throw good money after bad in his campaign. That could be money better spent to flip a couple of other states and hold off Democrats in order to take control of the Senate.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!