The Death Of The “Sure Thing”

New Hampshire wasn’t supposed to be where Joe Biden died. He wasn’t supposed to die at all. Remember, he said he wouldn’t do well in Iowa…he never has…and he didn’t this year either. But he was hoping for maybe a strong second or even a third place finish in New Hampshire. He didn’t even wait until the polls had closed before he skated to South Carolina.

Joe Biden is “Dead Man Walking”.

And he’s not alone. Elizabeth Warren’s speech after the polls closed congratulated Amy Klobuchar on a great run. It sounded every bit like a concession speech. Only she didn’t concede yet. In fact, as far as I can tell, there were only two concessions last night. Andrew Yang and Michael Bennet officially dropped out of the race. Deval Patrick will be throwing in the towel today.

But Warren and Biden aren’t far behind.

Oh, they both may make it to the Nevada Caucus a week from Saturday. Biden might even make it to South Carolina’s Primary the following Saturday, but they are both dead.

Just to recap last night, Sanders edged Buttigieg in New Hampshire, with Amy Klobuchar finishing a surprising third. Warren was a distant fourth, and Biden slumped to fifth, which was amazing considering he was in second just a week ago!

But when you call someone a “lyin’ dogface pony soldier”, as Biden did during a town hall meeting in New Hampshire, even thinking you’re quoting John Wayne, you’re not going to do well. His exact quote was, “Iowa’s a Democratic caucus,” the former vice president responded. “You ever been to a caucus?” When Moore said she had, he responded, “No you haven’t. You’re a lying dog-faced pony soldier.” The woman asked what I thought was actually a pretty good question. It was basically, that if you can’t win Iowa, how can you win a national election?

The funny thing is, Biden has used this quote before, in North Dakota during a town hall meeting in 2018. And again, he attributed it to John Wayne when asked about it later. Quite possibly, the fact he told a guy in Iowa that he was a liar, and “you need to take an IQ test”, just a week before shaded what he thought was a funny quip. It turned out to be a Howard Dean yell.

Elizabeth Warren has been on the ropes for a month. In fact, I predicted four weeks or so ago that she would be the first major candidate to withdraw from the race. I still hold true with that prediction. Because I think that Biden could do better in Nevada, certainly better in South Carolina unless he shoots himself in the foot again.

But the overall takeaway from last night was, either Biden or Warren could drop out at any moment, leaving Sanders, Buttigieg and surprisingly, Amy Klobuchar to battle it out the rest of the way. And in the end, I don’t see Sanders getting the nod…at least not at this point. Buttigieg would prove to be a much tougher battle for Donald Trump. He’s a lot more moderate, and wouldn’t upset the traditional wing of the party. Sanders on the other hand is viewed by the traditional Democrats as toxic, and not a real Democrat. Of course, Bernie’ minions will all stay seated on the sidelines if he doesn’t win the nod!

Either way, it could be, as some of the pundits are saying, a brokered convention this summer. That’d be a blast to watch!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

What NH Proves?

So, it looks like Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders for all intents and purposes, split Iowa. They came away as the two big winners and got most of the state delegates. Joe Biden, as everyone knows now, came away the loser. And that is actually a big deal. Let’s go back to 2004. John Kerry won Iowa. He ended up the nominee. In 2008, Bobo Obama won Iowa. He ended up the nominee. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Iowa. She ended up the nominee. Are you seeing a pattern here?

What does New Hampshire’s primary prove today? Well, not much. Because as Iowa has been able to accurately predict the Democrat nominee, New Hampshire has pretty much sucked at that, and they’ve proven to be able to predict the Republican nominee. Again, going back to 2008 (since George W. Bush was the incumbent in 2004), John McCain won New Hampshire. In 2012, Mitt Romney won New Hampshire, and in 2016, Donald Trump won New Hampshire. It shows that at least with recent history, Iowa chooses the nominee better with Democrats, and New Hampshire does better picking Republican nominees.

In New Hampshire in 2004, they did pick the eventual nominee in John Kerry, who was also almost a native son being from nearby Massachusetts. In 2008, when Bobo Obama was the nominee, Hillary Clinton won the primary, and in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was the nominee, Bernie Sanders won the primary.

So, today’s primary, probably doesn’t prove anything…except that the two guys that are at the top of the latest polls, Sanders and Buttigieg came out of Iowa basically winners. Sanders won the popular vote there, Buttigieg got I think one or two more delegates.

And what does all of that mean? Nothing. Right now the Democrat party is in disarray. The Iowa Caucus was a mess. The impeachment trial blew up in the faces of the Democrats in DC. Nancy Pelosi embarrassed not only herself, but her party with her antics at the State of the Union speech by ripping up the speech. And all of that kinda sorta has me a little concerned. Not scared just yet, but concerned.

Remember back when the Republicans were blamed for shutting down the government, and everyone felt going into an election year it would have a major impact on the outcome? It didn’t. Remember when anytime there has been some major happening against one of the two major parties nine or ten months out, it looks like it will doom them in the upcoming election? It usually doesn’t. That’s because America has a very short attention span anymore. We are all stuck in a 24 hour news cycle, and what was a major catastrophe yesterday is pretty well forgotten by the week’s end.

And while I really hope and pray that Americans remember all of the silly childish antics the Democrats have put on display here (the latest one has AOC declaring that Donald Trump pays African American people to say they support him!), there’s something gnawing at me that says it can all turn around very quickly between now and election day. Somehow I don’t think any of this is going to play into the voters’ minds come November.

That is the sad part. Because just as Iowa predicts Democrat nominees and New Hampshire predicts Republican nominees, America seems to forget. It’s going to be more about those two or three debates that Trump has with whomever comes out of the Democrat side, and less about Congress and impeachment, or tearing up a speech. That’s wrong. Democrats should be held responsible for their actions in Congress over the last two years. All of their investigations when they should have been doing the peoples’ business is just a waste of taxpayer money. They are wrong for doing that and they need to be held accountable for it.

The presidential candidates are wrong in thinking they can promise the world to the voters and expect the voters to come running to them. Hillary Clinton was actually right on that account. There will be a price to pay for their exuberance. And that does play into Donald Trump’s hands.

Let’s just hope America wakes up to the fraud that has become the Democrat party before it’s too late!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Latest Poll Numbers…Do They Mean Anything?

As the flock of Democrat candidates chow down on fair food at the Iowa State Fair this past week, I found it very interesting the pandering that went on. And then I thought with all of the fanfare going on…just how reliable are the first two states at predicting the eventual nominee.

I only went back to 2004, and obviously since that time the incumbent has run twice and there has been an “open” field with no incumbent twice. Here was what I found interesting in Iowa and in New Hampshire.

First of all, the current field in Iowa, according to RealClearPolitics shows that Joe Biden is in the lead with 25.3% on the average. He’s followed by Elizabeth Warren with 16.3%, and Kamala Harris with 14.3%. Bernie Sanders has 12.3%. That hasn’t changed much over the past month or so, so the State Fair hasn’t had much of an impact. Everyone else is in single digits.

Back in 2004, John Kerry won the Iowa Caucus. He became the nominee that year. In 2008, Barack Obama won Iowa. He became the nominee that year. In 2012, Obama again won, being the incumbent…and in 2016, Hillary Clinton won, also becoming the nominee that year. Result? Iowa does a pretty good job at picking Democrats’ who later become the nominee.

So, what about Republicans? Well, obviously this year, Donald Trump is the incumbent, so the numbers don’t matter, but in 2016, Ted Cruz won Iowa (Trump finished second). In 2012, it was Rick Santorum beating out Mitt Romney. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won the state, and in 2004, it was George W. Bush because he was the incumbent. So, while Iowans do a really good job of picking the eventual nominee for Democrats, they pretty much suck at picking the GOP’s standard bearer.

Now, let’s move to New Hampshire.

Currently in New Hampshire, Joe Biden is the front runner with an average of 21.8%. Bernie Sanders, from neighboring Vermont is second with 19.3. Elizabeth Warren is third with 15.8%, and Kamala Harris has 9.0%. So, what’s New Hampshire done in the past?

On the left, they nominated Bernie Sanders in 2004. He ended up losing the nomination to John Kerry. In 2008, they went with Hillary Clinton. She ended up losing the nomination to Barack Obama. Obama was the incumbent in 2012, so it’s not a factor, and in 2016, it was once again, Bernie winning New Hampshire and losing out to Hillary for the nomination. New Hampshire has failed to pick the Democrat nominee in the three open elections on the Democrat side since 2004.

On the Republican side, something interesting happened. In 2004, Bush was the incumbent, so he sailed through. But in 2008, John McCain won New Hampshire, and ended up becoming the nominee…and in 2012, Mitt Romney won New Hampshire, he also became the nominee. And in 2016, Donald Trump won New Hampshire. He ended up the nominee as well. They’re batting 1.000 over the last three presidential runs!

So…if you want to know who the Democrats will run, watch the Iowa Caucus. If you want to know who the Republicans’ nominee will be, watch the New Hampshire Primary. And the funny thing…New Hampshire went for Clinton in 2016…Iowa went for Trump. You would have thought it would have been the other way around.

We know one person that won’t win either…John Hickenlooper. The former Governor of Colorado quit this week in order to “ponder a Senate run”.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!