Winning Isn’t Enough

Republicans are excited about the midterm elections and have been since Joe Biden took office. Democrats are worried and are already throwing down the gauntlet as to what the country will look like under a split Congress at best. According to several Democrats, nothing will get done (usually not necessarily a bad thing!) and there will be more and more government shutdowns as Congress disagrees with itself as to what the spending priorities and amounts should be.

Five Thirty Eight has the Republicans winning the House of Representatives with a 70% likelihood. They have the Democrats maintaining control of the Senate with the same percentage.

So, if that’s the case, it’s not enough for the Republicans to play defense. They need to get on offense and tell the country exactly what they will do if they become the majority party in Congress. So far, Dems have been able to control the message, making Donald Trump the foe, and talking January 6th protest and abortion. They say the GOP is going to “take away” Social Security, which is a lie because all the GOP is doing is suggesting that Social Security be privatized as a way to maintain it past 2035 when it goes bankrupt. That’s really nothing more than investing in the stock market, something that every single person with a 401k account currently does.

But it’s not enough for the GOP to react to that. They need to come up with a plan on what they are going to do if elected to lead in the House. Democrats think the GOP will hold all sorts of hearings on Alejandro Mayorkas, Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, and the like. They will hold hearings on Critical Race Theory and Climate Change. They’ll tackle hearings on overspending. But that’s not enough. America needs answers, not hearings.

Here’s what I’d do if I were in charge…

First fix the friggin’ border. Finish the wall, hire 87,000 Border Patrol agents, not IRS agents. I’d defund that IRS plan in a heartbeat and send the money to fix the border. Then I would come up with a comprehensive immigration reform package that basically says who is allowed into this country, who isn’t, and what the punishment is, if you come in illegally for any reason.

Next up, we tackle over-spending. I’d get a Constitutional Amendment for a balanced budget. If Dems want to crank up the Bureau of Engraving’s printing presses 24/7, then they have to find a way to pay for it. That means raising taxes on everyone. If that’s done, you’ll see inflation come down.

I would also put the size of the Supreme Court into a Constitutional Amendment. It should be nine people. That’s what it’s been at for the majority of time the Supreme Court has been around. The Judiciary Act of 1869 states that the Supreme Court should have a Chief Justice and eight associate justices. It’s already federal law. It needs to be a Constitutional Amendment so Democrats (or Republicans) can’t pack the court.

I would make it a federal law that for the safety of the nation, all communities must hire and pay the wages of a police force and keep them trained. Not a token cop or two, but a force! Put more blue on the streets, and watch the crime rate decline.

Next up, I’d make it illegal to fund programs with questionable data, like Climate Change. It’s not that the climate isn’t changing. It’s that they keep changing the models saying humans are the cause of it and what the catastrophic results would be.

I would make it illegal for anyone in Congress to buy or sell stock, and the same goes for anyone in their families. You can’t hide behind your spouse’s trades anymore. We all know you’re giving them inside information! If Martha Stewart can go to jail for it, so can Nancy and Paul Pelosi. And yes, that would include Republicans that trade on it as well (there are a lot on each side of the aisle).

Finally, I would put term limits into effect. We have them for the President. We have them in 35 states. We should have them in Congress as well.

That should be enough to keep everyone busy for two years until we win back the White House and take control of the Senate!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

All Political Debates To End?

If you look at the political landscape right now, and you take into account the hesitancy of political candidates, especially those that think they are in the lead at the moment, to want to skip debates, the answer to the question looks easy.

Yes.

Debating has been a part of the American political scene since probably the 1850’s with the Lincoln/Douglas debates. Those debates though were for the Senate, but both Lincoln and Douglas wouldn’t be able to understand the current format used by the various debate sanctioning bodies today. And that’s what has caused a lot of the rift.

Currently, several candidates up for election in the midterms are refusing to debate their rivals. Democrats don’t want to share the stage with Republicans they claim are nothing more than conspiracy theorists. Republicans don’t want to have debates moderated by media that has an extreme left-wing bias and poses “gotcha” questions to them.

Frankly, I think the days of the “Great Debates” are gone. None have lived up to the hype of the Roosevelt/Wilkie debates of 1940, or the Kennedy/Nixon debate twenty years later. Today, they have devolved into a shouting match, and points are only awarded on the number of zingers that one candidate can throw on the other. Can you think back to two of the most famous lines in recent debate history? How about, “I knew Jack Kennedy. I was a friend of Jack Kennedy, and you are no Jack Kennedy!”? Or maybe, “Well, there you go again!”

Nowadays we get name calling, derision, and a lack of substantive answers because when asked a question they don’t like, candidates merely dodge the question and talk about something else entirely. That’s the moderator’s fault.

Speaking of the moderator, we’ve seen a terrible list of them over the past few years. People like Chris Wallace, who has absolutely no place on a debate stage (or in national media for that matter) are terrible. Wallace’s moderation of the Biden/Trump debate was a debacle of epic proportions. And to think Fox News would put their credibility on the line by calling him one of the best debate moderators in history? What a crock!

No, debates as they exist today are terrible. They aren’t worth watching, and even less worth when it comes to deciding which candidate could do a better job. I sincerely doubt, in this age of total partisanship, debates change all but maybe 1% of the minds out there. And those are the people that probably shouldn’t be voting in the first place because they have no minds!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

What The Republicans Are Lacking

As we head down to the last six weeks prior to the midterms, it hit me that the Republicans certainly have a number issues on their side. But they are lacking one important thing.

They don’t have a positive message.

Think back to Ronald Reagan. After the catastrophe that was Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter’s presidential years, Reagan came out with a speech he had developed for General Electric years before. It was the “Morning in America” speech. It was positive. It was patriotic. It made you feel good about yourself and your country.

Now compare that to what we are looking at for a Republican message out there now. It’s basically, Joe Biden sucks (no argument there!), crime is through the roof, you’re paying too much because of inflation, our economy is in the toilet, we’ve got a supply chain problem that is still haunting us, and our southern border is leakier than a tin can with no bottom.

And Republicans have no ideas how to fix any of that other than to stop spending so much money on crappy ideas like climate change and electric vehicles.

What Republicans need is to tie the negatives together with their positive. They need a brand new Morning in America type of approach. Yes, crime sucks. Yes, you’re paying too much for stuff, and the economy is in the toilet because of overspending. Yes, you can’t buy formula for your baby still today, and yes, we’re allowing more and more illegals into the United States. But what are the Republicans going to do that is different?

What they need to do is come out and paint that patriotic picture of America that makes you feel good about going to the polls on November 8th. They need to give you hope. They need to bring forth a message that yes, Democrats have put us into this mess because they control Congress and the White House, but WE can fix it because we have solid ideas that are going to bring us back to positive territory.

They need to talk about how we’ve faced adversity before and come through it with tenacity and verve. We can certainly do it again, but we all have to pull together. We’ve seen that the current folks in power have had two years to get things done, and your life isn’t better off today than it was two or three years ago. And we can make it that way all over again. I’d stay away from Trump’s line of “Make America Great Again” because that feeds into the whole anti-MAGA thing. But it’s along those lines. Be proud to be an American. Be happy knowing that we have a way out of this. We’re going to fix immigration. We’re going to stop the overspending to lower the inflation rate, and boost the economy through the marketplace, not the federal government. We’re going to fix the supply chain that’s been torn apart and get store shelves stocked again.

To not have the positivity added to the current message of “The Democrats have screwed everything up”, is to avoid the chance to really make this a red wave!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Are The “Warning Signs” Real?

The New York Times came out with a piece last week about how the warning signs are showing up again for the Democrats. The “warning signs” they were talking about were the poll numbers that weren’t very accurate the last few election cycles, and there’s a good reason for that. But are they actual warning signs for the Dems this time around?

The first thing that most (not all) of these polls do is over-sample Democrats. I’ve seen polls where as high as 46% were registered Democrats. In actuality, it’s nowhere near that much. According to statistics from states, only 24% of voters identify as Republican. 28% identify as Democrats, and 46% identify as independents.

Second, you have to take a really hard look at who is doing the poll, and what has their track record been in the past. While there were some that were accurate prior to 2016 (before Trump beat Clinton), they have fallen off quite a bit in the last five or six years. Zogby is one of those polls. Emerson and Harris are also pretty liberal.

Third, take a look at what happened in 2016, 2018, and 2020 versus what the polls said would happen. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan all over-played a Biden win and predicted Democrat wins in 2016 and 2018, by several points. In some states it was a percentage point or less, and they had Biden winning by as many as eight points! The same polls had Florida and North Carolina going to Biden right up until the election in 2020, but he ended up losing both states to Trump. And Texas, Iowa, and Ohio were all close enough to be called “toss-up” states in the polls, but were comfortably in Trump’s corner in 2020.

We’re seeing some huge Democrat leads in a lot of the polling right now, especially in the Senate races. That would concern most Republicans, and even has led to Mitch McConnell calling the field of candidates “weak”. And in a lot of cases, he’s probably right. But the races in pretty much all of the Senate races are tightening to the point where maybe the Dems won’t expand their lead in the Senate. Maybe they won’t end up with a lead in the Senate at all. Here in Arizona, Blake Masters has closed the gap on Mark Kelly to within the margin of error in the last two weeks after being down by 11 points earlier.

In Pennsylvania, what was once a John Fetterman 13 point lead over Mehmet Oz is down to 4 points. In Florida, Val Demings had a slim lead over Marco Rubio, but that’s disappeared, and now Rubio leads by 3. In Georgia, Herschel Walker was down by 4-6 points to Raphael Warnock by now has been leading for the last two weeks. Catherine Cortez Masto once led Republican Adam Laxalt by 7-10 points. Now it’s down to 1 to 2 points, well within the margin of error. North Carolina has Ted Budd now leading Cheri Beasley by 3 points. He was behind by the same amount.

The generic ballot over in the House is another indicator that polls aren’t working. Between 1996 and 2020, the generic ballot (which Rasmussen now gives to the GOP by 4 points) was off in all but two of the 13 elections. In 2008, Democrats did 2 points better than the polls indicated, and in 2018, they did exactly what the polls indicated. Other than that the polling heavily favored the Democrats and Republicans out-performed the polls significantly. So, a GOP by 4 point lead tells me that it’s going to be a huge GOP win. The last time it was even more than one or two points for the GOP, was 2010 when the GOP took back the House during the Obama administration.

So, overall, I would have to agree the New York Times election analyst, Nate Cohn that states that are showing large Democrat wins right now, like Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, may just be a mirage. We can only hope!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Is Dems’ Primary Plan Backfiring?

It’s not a very new or even well thought out plan. The Democrats nationally have been pouring millions of dollars into the primary campaigns of more right-wing candidates on the Republican side. Why would anyone do such a thing and back their potential opponents? Simple. They wanted to have weaker candidates make it through the GOP primaries so they would have a much easier time holding the House and Senate come midterm elections time.

The problem is the plan isn’t working.

What it has done is help a lot of Trump-supported candidates make it through the primary, which not only excites the left because they’re going to be running a campaign that makes this midterm a referendum on Donald Trump, but it also excites a lot of the Trump base who are now more excited about turning out at the polls on election day.

But that’s not what the nasty little secret is.

In a lot of parts of the country where this tactic was taking place, Democrats are watching in horror as the GOP candidates, who were behind, sometimes by double digits, like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania was, are now within the margin of error, and two months away from the midterm, are within striking distance to make a HUGE win for the GOP.

I’m not saying that the red wave is back, at least just yet. But the polling numbers I’m seeing from around the country are moving in that direction a tad. They need to keep moving that way. But there’s another sneaky little situation that the Democrats have found themselves in.

They can’t fight the GOP on being too far right.

All the Republican candidates have to do is mention that the Democrats funded their primary campaign to the tune of “X” millions of dollars, because they were the more sensible candidate, and it blows the credibility of the Democrats’ play right out the window. After all, why would you criticize a candidate for being a right-wing nut job, when you donated millions to their very campaign that you’re now chastising? You wouldn’t unless you want to get caught with your hand in the cookie jar.

It’s just the latest attempt of Democrats who understand they have a huge uphill battle to control Congress next year, and would do anything including voter fraud and intimidation, to win. It’s straight out of the Dems’ playbook. If you can’t win normally, change the rules. If you can’t change the rules, cheat. Winning is the only thing that matters.

Wouldn’t it be funny if they didn’t have enough money because of what they did in the primaries, to back their own candidates come November?

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

But Will It Matter Come November?

Democrats have been trying, actually striving, to find something that would click with their base to motivate them to come out and vote in November. So far, it’s been a big fat zero. Month after month, even the most liberal of mainstream media snowflakes have been forecasting a Republican wave the size of a tsunami. Apparently the Democrat base is listening to them. They aren’t listening to the party and the folks in Congress.

Dems were sure that when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade with the Dobbs v. Jackson decision (on a 6-3 vote), that the base would immediately catch fire and jump in line months early to vote Democrat. Actually the opposite has happened.

Pro-life voters are more likely to vote in the midterms with 70% of them saying they’ll be at the polling places come November 8th (or before). Only 52% of those that backed Roe v. Wade said the same thing. I was wavering as to whether or not the ruling would have an impact on the November midterms, but the poll was taken by the socialist Washington Post. Maybe THAT was supposed to motivate the base?

The next thing that was going to be a sure fire attention grabber was the January 6th committee hearings on Capitol Hill. Remember? These guys were certain that they were going to hang Donald Trump and turn him away from politics forever, and possible throw his orange hair in prison for the rest of his life for treason! Alas, ABC News did a poll that shows that only 40% felt there was enough information to be warranted. And while those folks felt that yes, there could be something there, 87% felt that the committee hearings and the televised portions of it were nothing more than a political show.

Now that the Inflation Reduction Bill has passed the Senate, and most likely will pass the House, Democrats will put a lot of emphasis on the drug cost reduction for Medicare. This does have a negative effect, however, as drug companies have already said they wouldn’t be making newer, more powerful drugs available to Medicare if they had to lower the cost of those new drugs. That means seniors may pay less for drugs, but won’t have access through Medicare to get the best drugs on the market.

So, once again, the Democrats have failed to ignite a fire under the people they need to be most excited just to save their jobs in Congress. It’s no surprise really. When you think of Joe Biden’s deep crater called his approval rating, the fact that his vice president is actually lower than his, and that pretty much everything Biden has touched has turned to rust, you can see that he certainly has brought the Democrat party lower than it’s been at least in my lifetime.

I’m not saying that there isn’t something out there that will sway voters away from the GOP at this point, that’s certainly a possibility. What I find interesting, and it could just be a couple of outliers, but there have been four polls in the last week that says Americans would back Democrats over Republicans by about 4 points. Now, that’s a generic ballot where it’s just do you back Republicans or Democrats, but still, it’s interesting. And to be honest, I don’t believe it for a minute. All four polls were done by leftist groups.

Buckle up kids…it’s going to be fun!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Is The GOP Going Too Far?

The Supreme Court’s ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson did away with a couple of earlier, and incorrect Supreme Court rulings, most notably Roe v. Wade. Handing the abortion question back to the states and denying the whole “privacy” question that actually was the lynchpin in Roe passing muster in the first place was a smart move by the court. In essence, they did not deny someone’s ability to get an abortion. They just denied that the federal government had any jurisdiction in the matter and that the states should decide for themselves. And that was the correct decision.

But there have been rumblings ever since the ruling was made public at the end of last month that the GOP is considering a nationwide ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Soon to be Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy has told CNN that he would support such a move. And while I would be the first to say that my religious beliefs do not allow me to accept abortion because it is the taking of a life, and violates the Sixth Commandment, I also think that this isn’t a fight the GOP needs to take on.

The Supreme Court showed it’s intelligence by not wading into the middle of the “Is it right or wrong” fight. As they had previously done with the whole Obamacare issue, the court looked at it from a Constitutional vein. And they concluded (rightly so) that the Constitution does not give the federal government jurisdiction in this manner. Therefore it needs to be returned to the states.

I would suggest that if McCarthy goes ahead with a nationwide ban after 15 weeks, he’s making the same mistake that the Justices made back in 1973. There are somethings that need to be left to the discretion of the states, and abortion is one of them. It’s not a right or wrong issue, it’s an issue of federal rights versus states rights, and it’s always been that.

The abortion battle, as far as the federal government is concerned is over. Now all we have to do is convince lawmakers of that!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

How Does Abortion Figure Into Midterms?

Ever since we were “teased” by the leak of the Supreme Court’s ruling on Dobbs v. Jackson, leftists all over the country have been certain that this was going to be their magic bullet to stopping the predicted “red wave” from washing over their hold on Congress during this November’s midterm elections. Is it really going to happen?

I don’t think so, and here’s why.

I won’t begin to say that the whole abortion issue won’t have some impact on the election, but it can’t have anywhere near the impact that the Democrats are hoping for. I’d put it slightly above the results of this whole January 6th Committee debacle. And my reason is basic and simple.

The people that care about both the January 6th Committee, which they themselves have admitted few people care about; and the abortion ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson, are going to effect people that were already going to vote Democrat anyway. There will be few if any votes actually swayed by this. In fact, even though there is a poll out there saying that 75% of women voters feel more inclined to support Democrats than Republicans after the SCOTUS ruling (Quinipiac came out with it), when they learn that abortion itself has not been outlawed, that figure dropped to about 49%.

The point here is pretty easy to grasp. Let’s say you’re a woman, and you have been inclined to buy into the whole “women’s right to her body” argument. Let’s say that the idea that terminating a life inside your body isn’t as important to you as feeling that you can live freely without consequence in your day to day sex life. The chances of you being left of center and someone that has already been voting Democrat all along are huge. Yes, there will be some independents, and maybe a few Republicans that fall into that category, but can we agree most of the people that are going to be swayed by this were already Dems?

Now, the only argument that holds water as to the election itself is that it may juice the left’s base a bit. I’m not saying a lot, I’m saying a bit. Let’s face it. If you’re someone that is excited about politics, you’re going to vote in pretty much every election. Unless there is a candidate that peaks your interest to the point that you really feel a need to get off the couch and vote, you probably won’t unless you’re into politics. There are two recent examples of this type of candidate. The first was Bobo Obama in 2008, who pulled people who had never voted before into politics with his “Hope & Change” message. He was young, energetic, and hip. The other was Donald Trump in 2016, who came in and called a spade a spade and didn’t care what the rest of the world felt of him. His confidence and message resonated with people that hadn’t voted before (and still does with a lot of those folks).

I would contend that neither January 6th Committee findings, nor the abortion ruling by the Supreme Court are going to have much impact at getting people off of the couch and going to the polls in November, especially if gas prices are around $5 a gallon, and inflation is 8% or so. People usually vote their wallets before they vote other things. And in midterm elections, that is even more evident to be the case. You don’t gravitate around a national candidate. So any bump that either the January 6th Committee or the abortion decision would generate will be small, and likely not to sway many minds that weren’t already made up. I really doubt there are people out there that would have voted Republican in November for House or Senate seats, that now will vote Democrat because of these issues. They are more likely going to make this a referendum on Joe Biden’s ability to lead.

And there is nothing Democrats can do about that!

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

How’s That Working Out For You?

Joe Biden is concerned. He says he is concerned about you, because he feels the pain you’re enduring because of the high gas prices, because of a shortage of baby formula on the shelves of your local supermarkets. He realizes that you’re paying more today than you probably ever did at the cash register when you go into any store. And it bothers him. Oh, I think it’s keeping him awake nights. How else could you explain the fact that nothing is getting done?

Joe Biden is fighting inflation for you! How’s that working out?

Apparently, not so good. The Labor Department on Friday released the latest economy figures. Inflation is now at an annualized rate of 8.6%, up from 8.3% in May. But the rate of inflation month to month jumped a full 1%. That was up from the 0.3% rise in May, and the 0.7% increase that the “experts” in the economic field felt it would jump.

My hunch is, it ain’t working out so well.

There really isn’t anything at this point that the Democrats in Congress, or Biden himself can do to change what will most likely be a Republican wave this November in the midterm elections. After seeing inflation being called “transitory”, then being called, “good for you”, then blamed on COVID, then blamed on Putin’s war with Ukraine, I have to wonder if these guys and gals in DC know anything about what’s going on in America these days.

There is a solution to all of this, and it’s really simple. It’s also a death-blow to the Democrat party. The solution is you cut the federal budget by 25%. You stop printing money willy-nilly. You may even consider to go back to the gold standard. And, you pay down the $32 trillion federal debt. Because if you don’t do all of that, every single working person in America that has a 401k is going to get hammered, and that is when the rebellion starts.

Here’s what I can possibly see happening up the road. And let me be clear, it’ll hit both Democrats and Republicans equally, though it’s mostly the Democrats’ fault. Did you know that the 401k you have at your employer’s place of business is actually regulated by the Department of Labor? It’s a federal regulation, and they can, if they need to (and they will), take the money in everyone’s 401k to help pay down the debt. IRA’s are safe. Roth IRA’s are safe. But your 401k can indeed be confiscated by the federal government. Social Security is set to have a 20% reduction in payouts to seniors in 2035. That’s when it runs out of money unless the reduction takes place. So, even if you’re retired and don’t have a 401k any longer, you’re going to feel the pinch as well. And if you’re getting say a $2,000 check from Uncle Same every month, that’s going to be cut to about $1,600. How do you think that will make senior citizens feel?

So, now you’ve pissed off the working class who are scrimping and saving for their retirement since only 16% of Fortune 500 companies offer a pension any longer. And you’re taking their hard-earned retirement savings. And you’re pissing off about one in five Americans (21.1%) that are currently on Social Security. So the question I ask is, am I the only one that sees the revolution coming?

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!

Democrats REAL Problem This November

I don’t think the real problem Democrats are going to be facing in November is what you think it is. Oh, don’t get me wrong, you can make solid arguments for any of the problems in our society today…runaway inflation, a terrible economy on the verge of recession, wide open borders to our south with tons of illegals flowing in. You’ve also got a “supply chain issue” which I’m convinced is designed to get us to be less “consumer-oriented” and live with less goods and services. I would throw the whole baby formula issue into that mix. Joe Biden has plummeting poll numbers that if this keeps up may end up where even his wife wouldn’t vote for him in 2024.

But that’s not the Democrats’ biggest worry heading into the midterm elections.

Their biggest worry right now is Democrats. Think about it this way. What do you need in order to win elections. OK, let me rephrase that. What do you need in order to win elections legitimately? The answer is voters. And in order to get those votes, those folks somehow have to get to the polls.

The problem with Democrats right now is that their base isn’t at all excited about this November’s elections. It seems that every issue that Democrats in Congress are making a big deal about draws yawns from the public. Even something you would think would be an automatic interest juicer, like abortion being restricted next month, or the mass shootings at elementary schools would be enough to get people’s heartstrings tugged to go to the polls and reelect their Representatives and Senators. Even the cry that if Republicans take over Congress next year, our nation’s actual future is at risk, isn’t generating any friction with the voters.

But Democrats are missing one big key to the election. Americans aren’t ready for socialism. They aren’t ready to give up their freedoms for bigger, more largess in their government. And the fact that Democrats can’t even agree with themselves and get anything passed even with majorities in the House, and the Senate, and a President in the White House makes them wonder if they are on the wrong side of the fence. That’s why only 2 in 10 Democrats say they are excited about this coming election. They have been told for months how it’s going to be a “big red wave” by the mainstream media. They’ve been told since Biden took office what a crappy job he’s been doing. And it seems to me, everyone, regardless of party, is fed up with the current cast of characters. When that happens, they want change. And they typically vote in the other party.

Now, that doesn’t mean the Democrats are going away forever. We’ve all seen where Republicans have gotten back Congress, or the White House and then lose it somewhere up the road. The “pendulum theory” is at work here. And the left went too far in that direction and it’s time for a correction. And nothing the Democrats do is going to stop momentum.

Carry on world…you’re dismissed!