That is going to depend on who in the Biden administration you ask. Joe himself has all but declared his candidacy for 2024. That was much to the chagrin of his staff, who don’t want him making that statement. In fact, they’ve gone to rather extreme lengths to make sure that Joe follows their script and doesn’t wade off into the weeds as he is known to do.
There are some issues, as we’ll discuss.
First of all, you’ve probably noticed that you don’t see Biden sitting in the Oval Office with the press surrounding him as he signs a bill, or makes a statement, or answers question. There’s a reason for that. The Oval Office doesn’t have a teleprompter in it. Instead, they’ve built a “phony” staging area next door to the Oval where Biden staffers feel much more comfortable with him holding those media events. That’s because it DOES have a teleprompter. It’s the biggest fear of his staff…him going off message. And you hear him complain about it all the time. How often does Joe say something like, “Well, I’m not supposed to say this, but…”, or “I’m not allowed to take questions.”
But most of the staff are preparing for a run in 2024. They certainly don’t want Biden saying that because of plummeting poll numbers, or a decline mental or physical health, he’s only going to serve as president for one term. That would make him a lame duck. And that would be take away an awful lot of power from the office. People wouldn’t respect his thoughts and opinions as much (not that they necessarily do anyway), but it would decimate whatever agenda he has left.
The tightrope that the staff is walking right now surrounds when Joe announces he’s going to run. Most Democrats don’t want him trying for a second term. But if he chooses not to, he has to be careful of when that announcement is made. Too early and as I said, he becomes a lame duck. Too late and the Democrats lose the opportunity to get decent candidates to run in his place. Think back to when George HW Bush was president. It was a different circumstance altogether, but Democrats shied away from running against Bush because he had a 90% approval rating at one point. Only five Dems stepped up to the plate to run in the primaries: Bill Clinton, Jerry Brown, Paul Tsongas, Tom Harkin, & Bob Kerry. None of them at the time would be considered “serious” contenders, and we all know what ended up happening.
At the same time, Donald Trump is all but sure he’s going to run, but he will most likely wait until 2023 to announce as well. He doesn’t want to be the first candidate to announce. He’d rather Biden go first, then he’ll announce a week or two later. Neither Trump nor Biden is going to have a problem with name recognition. Both, for the third presidential election in a row, are going to have a negative problem. They both have negatives that voters see and they’ll have to overcome them. Biden is a buffoon and hasn’t done a decent job at anything. Trump is seen as an egomaniac and someone that is about as far away as being “presidential” as you can get. In the end though, I think most Americans would rather have a decent life style and a guy that’s full of himself than a guy that can’t remember what state he’s in.
2024 will most assuredly be a presidential contest for the ages. I’m not sure which age, but it’s looking like 70’s and 80’s.
Carry on world…you’re dismissed!